Dynamic modeling of interregional carbon emission transfers and mitigation responsibilities

Evaluating the carbon emissions embodied in electricity transmission often proves inaccurate and incomplete, necessitating a refined approach. Based on the inseparable linkages between energy usage and carbon emissions, a network approach is developed in this study to calculate the emissions across regional electricity transmission and determine relevant emission mitigation responsibilities. The emission factors are revised to track the real sources of emissions. In detail, the consumption-based, income-based, consumption-driven production-based and income-driven production-based CO2 flows among provinces are first identified. The pairwise contribution rates are calculated to compare the responsibilities of the regions triggered by different accounting standards. A three-level responsibility assessment framework is presented to illustrate the attribution of emission reduction responsibilities. In accordance with the emission reduction targets, several intervention measures from three perspectives in each region are conducted to achieve coordinated development within the system. China Southern Power Grid is selected as a case study to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the model. The results show that Guangdong has transferred the largest amount of CO2 emissions to Guizhou and Yunnan at the final demand level. Guizhou has the lowest responsibility for emission reductions and it is not sensitive to the interventions from the production side, but is highly sensitive to the interventions from consumption and income sides. Emission reduction measures at the production level in other regions could effectively increase Guangdong's emission reduction responsibilities, but they cannot simultaneously improve Guizhou's emission reduction responsibilities.