Rebound in oil and natural gas emissions amid coal-phase out: Implications for the UK's net-zero strategy

The UK has pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, transitioning from carbon-intensive fossil fuels such as coal to cleaner alternatives. This transition is vital for sustainability, as phasing out coal supports global climate objectives while advancing the UN Sustainable Development Goals, notably Affordable and Clean Energy (SDG 7) and Climate Action (SDG 13). Nevertheless, research remains limited on the environmental consequences of coal phase-out, particularly its implications on the consumption of other energy sources such as natural gas, often regarded as a “bridge fuel.” Using UK data from 1980 to 2023, this study examines the impact of fossil fuel consumption on CO2 emissions across the power, industry, building, and transport sectors, and whether the coal phase-out triggers rebound increases in natural gas and oil emissions. Employing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the findings show that coal, oil, and natural gas significantly increase CO2 emissions, with oil exerting the greatest impact. Wavelet coherence analysis (WTC) supports these results and confirms the effectiveness of the coal phase-out policy in reducing emissions. However, the WTC also reveals a rise in gas-related emissions, likely due to overreliance on natural gas as a substitute for coal in the power sector. Moreover, a rebound in oil-related emissions is evident across the industry and building sectors, with a sharp rise in transport. Overall, the study provides strong empirical support for the carbon lock-in theory and underscores the urgency of accelerating the transition to renewables, confirming that natural gas can only serve as a short-term solution.