The Role of Agriculture in Shaping CO 2 in Saudi Arabia: A Comprehensive Analysis of Economic and Environmental Factors

This research examines the critical issue of greenhouse gas emissions, focusing on carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) as a significant contributor to climate change and its threats to environmental sustainability. The primary objective of this paper is to highlight the environmental impacts resulting from economic growth, energy consumption, and agricultural development in Saudi Arabia. The purpose of the empirical research is to investigate the dynamic causal relationships between CO 2 emissions, agricultural development, economic growth, energy consumption, and additional control variables in Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2022. It is hypothesised that increases in agricultural land, economic activity, and energy use contribute to rising CO 2 emissions. This study examines these relationships using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) methodologies, along with unit root tests, the ARDL bounds test, and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) causality analysis, to assess both short-term and long-term interactions among the variables. The findings reveal that agricultural land expansion, economic growth, and energy consumption significantly contribute to increased CO 2 emissions. Specifically, a 1% increase in agricultural land correlated with a 0.16% rise in CO 2 emissions, while a 1% increase in economic growth and energy use led to 0.28% and 0.85% rises, respectively. These results underscore the environmental challenges posed by economic expansion and energy dependence. This paper emphasises the need for policies that balance economic growth with emissions reduction, in line with Saudi Vision 2030. Transitioning to a low-carbon, circular economy supported by renewable energy and innovation is essential for sustainable development and climate change mitigation.