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Planning the development of district heating in the face of uncertainty

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  • Džiuvė, Vytautas
  • Lekavičius, Vidas

Abstract

The district heating sector, like the broader energy system, is undergoing a complex transformation driven by volatile energy markets, shifting policy frameworks, and technological innovation. These dynamics create considerable uncertainty in the planning and investment processes for district heating operators. This study demonstrates a capability to analyze the complex performance of the DH sector in the face of economic and technological uncertainties. The core of the methodology is a partial equilibrium economic model with sensitivity and uncertainty analysis implemented using the SimLAB software package. To increase accuracy, the model has been verified and calibrated using the energyPRO energy system modelling tool.

Suggested Citation

  • Džiuvė, Vytautas & Lekavičius, Vidas, 2025. "Planning the development of district heating in the face of uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:335:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225035364
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.137894
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