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Evolutionary game analysis of sustainable aviation fuel promotion

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  • Zhang, Wei
  • Li, Chengjiang
  • Jia, Tingwen
  • Wang, Shiyuan
  • Hao, Qianwen
  • Yang, Jing

Abstract

In the face of the serious challenge of global climate change, it is urgent for the aviation industry, as a significant contributor to carbon emissions, to take action to reduce its emissions. This study uses evolutionary game theory to construct a dynamic interaction model between the government and airlines. It explores the impact mechanisms of carbon trading and subsidy policies on applying sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). The study analyses the dual role of carbon trading and subsidy policies in promoting SAF development in a complex market environment, highlighting the rationality of policy design and the necessity of regulation. The strategic interaction between the government and airlines is studied through evolutionary game analysis. The result shows that a dynamic subsidy policy under a carbon trading mechanism can effectively promote the development of SAF. Subsidy coefficients, subsidy amounts, penalties, and the proportion of SAFs positively correlate with the probability of a desired outcome within a specific range. In contrast, the price of SAFs is negatively correlated. This study enriches the theoretical framework for SAF and provides policymakers with practical analytical tools and policy implications for the aviation industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Wei & Li, Chengjiang & Jia, Tingwen & Wang, Shiyuan & Hao, Qianwen & Yang, Jing, 2025. "Evolutionary game analysis of sustainable aviation fuel promotion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:322:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225013659
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.135723
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