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Stochastic evolutionary game analysis of microgrids’ grid connection considering multiple factors

Author

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  • Zhang, Kan
  • Jia, Heping
  • Kang, Keyi
  • Liu, Dunnan
  • Huang, Hui

Abstract

With the development of global energy transition and climate change mitigation, microgrids' grid connection is vital for optimizing the energy structure but faces grid enterprises’ discriminatory issues. Existing studies often overlook the interactive relationships among the government, grid enterprises, and microgrids, as well as the impact of random interference. This paper constructs a tripartite stochastic evolutionary game model to explore the differences in the evolutionary trends of the system under the changes of multiple factors such as stochastic disturbances, initial probabilities, and the characteristics of the participants. The results show that strong interference alters the evolutionary path. When the initial probability is low, grid enterprises may adopt the non-discriminatory access strategy. However, high-intensity interference causes strategic fluctuations. Improving regulatory efficiency benefits system development; but under strong interference and low initial probability, strategies are unstable. High microgrid fairness-sensitivity promotes positive evolution. There is a positive relationship between grid discrimination and supervision intensity. Among government policies, the subsidy-punishment combination is optimal, and high subsidies have drawbacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Kan & Jia, Heping & Kang, Keyi & Liu, Dunnan & Huang, Hui, 2025. "Stochastic evolutionary game analysis of microgrids’ grid connection considering multiple factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 330(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:330:y:2025:i:c:s036054422502496x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136854
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