IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v313y2024ics0360544224036569.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel uncertainty quantification method for electricity performance of building photovoltaic systems from multiple weather data sources

Author

Listed:
  • Tan, Jingyuan
  • Tian, Wei
  • Zhong, Yidi
  • Zhang, Simeng
  • Fang, Zhenlei

Abstract

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems on buildings offer a promising solution for local renewable energy integration. As interest in sustainable energy grows, the demand for building PV systems is increasing. However, a significant challenge lies in accurately quantifying the uncertainty associated with building PV performance, particularly when considering multiple weather data sources. This study proposes a novel uncertainty quantification method to address this challenge. A case study of a building PV system with a PV wall and roof in Tianjin, China, is utilized to demonstrate the proposed method. Three types of weather data from different sources are considered: typical meteorological year data, multi-year historical data, and climate change projections. Uncertainty is quantified using a weighted-mean approach, incorporating weights based on recency, period, and accuracy of the data sources. Results indicate that the proposed method effectively integrates uncertainties from various data sources, providing reliable long-term energy yield estimates for PV systems. The variation coefficient of annual yield for the PV wall and roof system across ten typical meteorological year files is approximately 10 %. This study contributes to a comprehensive understanding of uncertainty in building PV performance, enabling informed decision-making in sustainable building design and energy management.

Suggested Citation

  • Tan, Jingyuan & Tian, Wei & Zhong, Yidi & Zhang, Simeng & Fang, Zhenlei, 2024. "A novel uncertainty quantification method for electricity performance of building photovoltaic systems from multiple weather data sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:313:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224036569
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.133878
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224036569
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.133878?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Willockx, Brecht & Reher, Thomas & Lavaert, Cas & Herteleer, Bert & Van de Poel, Bram & Cappelle, Jan, 2024. "Design and evaluation of an agrivoltaic system for a pear orchard," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    2. Zhang, Hu & Tian, Wei & Tan, Jingyuan & Yin, Juchao & Fu, Xing, 2024. "Sensitivity analysis of multiple time-scale building energy using Bayesian adaptive spline surfaces," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    3. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    4. Liu, Zhengguang & Guo, Zhiling & Chen, Qi & Song, Chenchen & Shang, Wenlong & Yuan, Meng & Zhang, Haoran, 2023. "A review of data-driven smart building-integrated photovoltaic systems: Challenges and objectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    5. Nicoletti, Francesco & Cucumo, Mario Antonio & Arcuri, Natale, 2023. "Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV): A mathematical approach to evaluate the electrical production of solar PV blinds," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PD).
    6. Amin, Amin & Mourshed, Monjur, 2024. "Weather and climate data for energy applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    7. Wang, Yiping & Tian, Wei & Ren, Jianbo & Zhu, Li & Wang, Qingzhao, 2006. "Influence of a building's integrated-photovoltaics on heating and cooling loads," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(9), pages 989-1003, September.
    8. Cao, Qimeng & Liu, Yan & Sun, Xue & Yang, Liu, 2022. "Country-level evaluation of solar radiation data sets using ground measurements in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    9. Janusz Marchwiński & Vuk Milošević & Anna Stefańska & Elena Lucchi, 2023. "Irradiation Analysis of Tensile Membrane Structures for Building-Integrated Photovoltaics," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-26, August.
    10. Memmola, Francesco & Contestabile, Pasquale & Falco, Pierpaolo & Brocchini, Maurizio, 2024. "Test Reference Year for wave energy studies: Generation and validation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    11. Vuillod, Bruno & Montemurro, Marco & Panettieri, Enrico & Hallo, Ludovic, 2023. "A comparison between Sobol’s indices and Shapley’s effect for global sensitivity analysis of systems with independent input variables," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    12. Tian, Wei & Liu, Yunliang & Heo, Yeonsook & Yan, Da & Li, Zhanyong & An, Jingjing & Yang, Song, 2016. "Relative importance of factors influencing building energy in urban environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 237-250.
    13. Meng, B. & Loonen, R.C.G.M. & Hensen, J.L.M., 2022. "Performance variability and implications for yield prediction of rooftop PV systems – Analysis of 246 identical systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    2. Yadav, S. & Panda, S.K. & Tripathy, M., 2018. "Performance of building integrated photovoltaic thermal system with PV module installed at optimum tilt angle and influenced by shadow," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 11-23.
    3. Susca, T. & Zanghirella, F. & Colasuonno, L. & Del Fatto, V., 2022. "Effect of green wall installation on urban heat island and building energy use: A climate-informed systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    4. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    5. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.
    6. Gong, Ziqian & Baker, Justin S. & Wade, Christopher M. & Havlík, Petr, 2024. "Irrigation intensification in U.S. agriculture under climate change – an adaptation mechanism or trade-induced response?," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343581, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Islam, AFM Tariqul & Islam, AKM Saiful & Islam, GM Tarekul & Bala, Sujit Kumar & Salehin, Mashfiqus & Choudhury, Apurba Kanti & Dey, Nepal C. & Hossain, Akbar, 2022. "Adaptation strategies to increase water productivity of wheat under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    8. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    11. Du, Hua & Han, Qi & de Vries, Bauke & Sun, Jun, 2024. "Community solar PV adoption in residential apartment buildings: A case study on influencing factors and incentive measures in Wuhan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 354(PA).
    12. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    13. Langevin, J. & Reyna, J.L. & Ebrahimigharehbaghi, S. & Sandberg, N. & Fennell, P. & Nägeli, C. & Laverge, J. & Delghust, M. & Mata, É. & Van Hove, M. & Webster, J. & Federico, F. & Jakob, M. & Camaras, 2020. "Developing a common approach for classifying building stock energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem & Waisman, Henri & Guivarch, Céline & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2012. "Mitigation costs in second-best economies: time profile of emission reductions and sequencing of accompanying measures," Conference papers 332206, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Schaeffer, Michiel & Gohar, Laila & Kriegler, Elmar & Lowe, Jason & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2015. "Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 257-268.
    16. Kokou Amega & Yendoubé Laré & Ramchandra Bhandari & Yacouba Moumouni & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Saidou Madougou, 2022. "Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-24, December.
    17. Jung-A Yang & Sooyoul Kim & Sangyoung Son & Nobuhito Mori & Hajime Mase, 2020. "Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 425-442, September.
    18. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    19. Guo, Jinggang & Prestemon, Jeffrey & Johnston, Craig, 2023. "Forest market outlook in the Southern United States," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    20. Fahad Saeed & Mansour Almazroui & Nazrul Islam & Mariam Saleh Khan, 2017. "Intensification of future heat waves in Pakistan: a study using CORDEX regional climate models ensemble," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1635-1647, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:313:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224036569. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.