IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v322y2022ics0306261922008637.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Performance variability and implications for yield prediction of rooftop PV systems – Analysis of 246 identical systems

Author

Listed:
  • Meng, B.
  • Loonen, R.C.G.M.
  • Hensen, J.L.M.

Abstract

While the performance of PV systems and its associated uncertainties are well understood for standard test conditions in the laboratory, there is still limited knowledge about the magnitude and mechanism of the PV performance variability under actual operating conditions. This paper aims to identify the performance variability between identical rooftop PV systems in the field and formulate risk mitigation strategies to reduce the error of annual yield prediction. To achieve the aim, long-term monitoring data of 246 identical rooftop PV systems in 19 sub-urban residential communities is analyzed. Through structured side-by-side comparisons, the mechanism of PV performance variations linked to location, module orientation, season, sky clearness, and system age is investigated. It is found that PV performance variability increases in the real built environment compared with the nameplate bandwidth declared by the manufacturers. Significant variation of PV operating performance is observed not only between different locations, but also between peer systems in the same neighborhood. Even in low-rise sub-urban settings, local shading and masking effects play a prominent role and can introduce great uncertainties. Due to the site-to-site and peer-to-peer uniqueness of PV performance, it is inappropriate to employ an identical empirical derate value for all cases. Commissioning and monitoring of PV systems in the field for at least one month with the largest range of solar elevation can significantly reduce PV yield prediction error and mitigate financial risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Meng, B. & Loonen, R.C.G.M. & Hensen, J.L.M., 2022. "Performance variability and implications for yield prediction of rooftop PV systems – Analysis of 246 identical systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:322:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922008637
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119550
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261922008637
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119550?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sharma, Vikrant & Chandel, S.S., 2013. "Performance and degradation analysis for long term reliability of solar photovoltaic systems: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 753-767.
    2. Quan, Hao & Yang, Dazhi, 2020. "Probabilistic solar irradiance transposition models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    3. Zhong, Teng & Zhang, Zhixin & Chen, Min & Zhang, Kai & Zhou, Zixuan & Zhu, Rui & Wang, Yijie & Lü, Guonian & Yan, Jinyue, 2021. "A city-scale estimation of rooftop solar photovoltaic potential based on deep learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    4. Shen, Lu & Li, Zhenpeng & Ma, Tao, 2020. "Analysis of the power loss and quantification of the energy distribution in PV module," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    5. Panagiotis Moraitis & Bala Bhavya Kausika & Nick Nortier & Wilfried Van Sark, 2018. "Urban Environment and Solar PV Performance: The Case of the Netherlands," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, May.
    6. Hashemi, Behzad & Taheri, Shamsodin & Cretu, Ana-Maria & Pouresmaeil, Edris, 2021. "Systematic photovoltaic system power losses calculation and modeling using computational intelligence techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    7. Purohit, Ishan & Purohit, Pallav, 2018. "Performance assessment of grid-interactive solar photovoltaic projects under India’s national solar mission," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 25-41.
    8. Ahn, Hyeunguk & Rim, Donghyun & Pavlak, Gregory S. & Freihaut, James D., 2019. "Uncertainty analysis of energy and economic performances of hybrid solar photovoltaic and combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP + PV) systems using a Monte-Carlo method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    9. Hanifi, Hamed & Pander, Matthias & Zeller, Ulli & Ilse, Klemens & Dassler, David & Mirza, Mark & Bahattab, Mohammed A. & Jaeckel, Bengt & Hagendorf, Christian & Ebert, Matthias & Gottschalg, Ralph & S, 2020. "Loss analysis and optimization of PV module components and design to achieve higher energy yield and longer service life in desert regions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    10. Nofuentes, G. & García-Domingo, B. & Muñoz, J.V. & Chenlo, F., 2014. "Analysis of the dependence of the spectral factor of some PV technologies on the solar spectrum distribution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 302-309.
    11. You, Siming & Lim, Yu Jie & Dai, Yanjun & Wang, Chi-Hwa, 2018. "On the temporal modelling of solar photovoltaic soiling: Energy and economic impacts in seven cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1136-1146.
    12. Sarralde, Juan José & Quinn, David James & Wiesmann, Daniel & Steemers, Koen, 2015. "Solar energy and urban morphology: Scenarios for increasing the renewable energy potential of neighbourhoods in London," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 10-17.
    13. Leloux, Jonathan & Narvarte, Luis & Trebosc, David, 2012. "Review of the performance of residential PV systems in France," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1369-1376.
    14. Roberts, Justo José & Mendiburu Zevallos, Andrés A. & Cassula, Agnelo Marotta, 2017. "Assessment of photovoltaic performance models for system simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1104-1123.
    15. Phinikarides, Alexander & Makrides, George & Zinsser, Bastian & Schubert, Markus & Georghiou, George E., 2015. "Analysis of photovoltaic system performance time series: Seasonality and performance loss," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 51-63.
    16. Avi Aronescu & Joseph Appelbaum, 2019. "The Effect of Collector Shading and Masking on Optimized PV Field Designs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-10, September.
    17. Elsinga, Boudewijn & van Sark, Wilfried G.J.H.M., 2017. "Short-term peer-to-peer solar forecasting in a network of photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1464-1483.
    18. Jung, Seunghoon & Jeoung, Jaewon & Kang, Hyuna & Hong, Taehoon, 2021. "Optimal planning of a rooftop PV system using GIS-based reinforcement learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    19. Maghami, Mohammad Reza & Hizam, Hashim & Gomes, Chandima & Radzi, Mohd Amran & Rezadad, Mohammad Ismael & Hajighorbani, Shahrooz, 2016. "Power loss due to soiling on solar panel: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1307-1316.
    20. Mohajeri, N. & Gudmundsson, A. & Kunckler, T. & Upadhyay, G. & Assouline, D. & Kämpf, J.H & Scartezzini, J.L., 2019. "A solar-based sustainable urban design: The effects of city-scale street-canyon geometry on solar access in Geneva, Switzerland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 173-190.
    21. Gonçalves, Juliana E. & Montazeri, Hamid & van Hooff, Twan & Saelens, Dirk, 2021. "Performance of building integrated photovoltaic facades: Impact of exterior convective heat transfer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kumar, Manish & Kumar, Arun, 2017. "Performance assessment and degradation analysis of solar photovoltaic technologies: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 554-587.
    2. Zheng, Jianan & Liu, Wenjun & Cui, Ting & Wang, Hanchun & Chen, Fangcai & Gao, Yang & Fan, Liulu & Ali Abaker Omer, Altyeb & Ingenhoff, Jan & Zhang, Xinyu & Liu, Wen, 2023. "A novel domino-like snow removal system for roof PV arrays: Feasibility, performance, and economic benefits," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    3. Hanifi, Hamed & Pander, Matthias & Zeller, Ulli & Ilse, Klemens & Dassler, David & Mirza, Mark & Bahattab, Mohammed A. & Jaeckel, Bengt & Hagendorf, Christian & Ebert, Matthias & Gottschalg, Ralph & S, 2020. "Loss analysis and optimization of PV module components and design to achieve higher energy yield and longer service life in desert regions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    4. Del Pero, Claudio & Aste, Niccolò & Leonforte, Fabrizio, 2021. "The effect of rain on photovoltaic systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1803-1814.
    5. Essah, Emmanuel A. & Rodriguez Arguelles, Ana & Glover, Neil, 2015. "Assessing the performance of a building integrated BP c-Si PV system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 36-45.
    6. Conceição, Ricardo & González-Aguilar, José & Merrouni, Ahmed Alami & Romero, Manuel, 2022. "Soiling effect in solar energy conversion systems: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    7. Wang, Meng & Peng, Jinqing & Luo, Yimo & Shen, Zhicheng & Yang, Hongxing, 2021. "Comparison of different simplistic prediction models for forecasting PV power output: Assessment with experimental measurements," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    8. Kim, Byungil & Kim, Changyoon, 2018. "Estimating the effect of module failures on the gross generation of a photovoltaic system using agent-based modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1019-1024.
    9. Pandey, A.K. & Tyagi, V.V. & Selvaraj, Jeyraj A/L & Rahim, N.A. & Tyagi, S.K., 2016. "Recent advances in solar photovoltaic systems for emerging trends and advanced applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 859-884.
    10. Panagiotis Moraitis & Bala Bhavya Kausika & Nick Nortier & Wilfried Van Sark, 2018. "Urban Environment and Solar PV Performance: The Case of the Netherlands," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, May.
    11. Yang, Ying & Campana, Pietro Elia & Yan, Jinyue, 2020. "Potential of unsubsidized distributed solar PV to replace coal-fired power plants, and profits classification in Chinese cities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    12. Simone Pedrazzi & Giulio Allesina & Alberto Muscio, 2018. "Are Nano-Composite Coatings the Key for Photovoltaic Panel Self-Maintenance: An Experimental Evaluation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Fernández-Solas, Álvaro & Micheli, Leonardo & Almonacid, Florencia & Fernández, Eduardo F., 2021. "Optical degradation impact on the spectral performance of photovoltaic technology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    14. Kichou, Sofiane & Silvestre, Santiago & Nofuentes, Gustavo & Torres-Ramírez, Miguel & Chouder, Aissa & Guasch, Daniel, 2016. "Characterization of degradation and evaluation of model parameters of amorphous silicon photovoltaic modules under outdoor long term exposure," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 231-241.
    15. Huang, Wenfeng & Zhou, Kun & Sun, Ke & He, Zhu, 2019. "Effects of wind flow structure, particle flow and deposition pattern on photovoltaic energy harvest around a block," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Ballestrín, Jesús & Polo, Jesús & Martín-Chivelet, Nuria & Barbero, Javier & Carra, Elena & Alonso-Montesinos, Joaquín & Marzo, Aitor, 2022. "Soiling forecasting of solar plants: A combined heuristic approach and autoregressive model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    17. Fernández-Solas, Álvaro & Montes-Romero, Jesús & Micheli, Leonardo & Almonacid, Florencia & Fernández, Eduardo F., 2022. "Estimation of soiling losses in photovoltaic modules of different technologies through analytical methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    18. Chen, Xiaoyang & Du, Yang & Lim, Enggee & Fang, Lurui & Yan, Ke, 2022. "Towards the applicability of solar nowcasting: A practice on predictive PV power ramp-rate control," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 147-166.
    19. Wang, Chao & Huang, Xia & Hu, Xiaoqian & Zhao, Longfeng & Liu, Chao & Ghadimi, Pezhman, 2021. "Trade characteristics, competition patterns and COVID-19 related shock propagation in the global solar photovoltaic cell trade," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    20. Paxis Marques João Roque & Shyama P. D. Chowdhury & Zhongjie Huan, 2021. "Improvement of Stand-Alone Solar PV Systems in the Maputo Region by Adapting Necessary Parameters," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-18, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:322:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922008637. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.