IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v313y2024ics0360544224033851.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Understanding the zero-emission vehicle market spatial diffusion and its determinants from 2019 to 2022 using spatial econometric models

Author

Listed:
  • Shi, Hui
  • Goulias, Konstadinos G.

Abstract

Due to the rapid rise in the acceptance of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), much research has been conducted on the market evolution of alternative fuel technology. The research reported in this paper builds on prior studies by incorporating several new directions. Firstly, the spatial distribution of ZEV purchases in California is explored, then seven models (two nonspatial models and five spatially explicit models) are developed to predict regional ZEV sales. The predictions are based on fundamental and widely accessible characteristics such as infrastructure and demographic statistics. Next, a spatial econometric model known as the “spatial error model” is chosen to distribute ZEV sales from their original postal code (ZIP) level to the more often utilized US census tract level. This allows for carrying out a comprehensive analysis that includes studying the correlation of ZEV sales with local incentives and disadvantaged communities. Results reveal that ZEV sales in California increased significantly between 2019 and 2022, as spatial autocorrelation decreased. Vulnerable groups were less likely to have access to ZEVs, particularly during the initial stage of the ZEV market penetration in 2019. As expected, regions with considerable ZEV sales tended to also experience substantial purchase rebates and lower disadvantaged population, especially in 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Hui & Goulias, Konstadinos G., 2024. "Understanding the zero-emission vehicle market spatial diffusion and its determinants from 2019 to 2022 using spatial econometric models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:313:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224033851
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.133607
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224033851
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.133607?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhat, Furqan A. & Tiwari, Gaurav Yash & Verma, Ashish, 2024. "Preferences for public electric vehicle charging infrastructure locations: A discrete choice analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 177-197.
    2. Elhorst, J. Paul, 2010. "Dynamic panels with endogenous interaction effects when T is small," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 272-282, September.
    3. Collantes, Gustavo O, 2006. "The California Zero-Emission Vehicle Mandate: A Study of the Policy Process, 1990-2004," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt9030893m, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    4. Chakraborty, Debapriya & Bunch, David S. & Brownstone, David & Xu, Bingzheng & Tal, Gil, 2022. "Plug-in electric vehicle diffusion in California: Role of exposure to new technology at home and work," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 133-151.
    5. Zhenhua Sun & Lingjun Du & Houyin Long, 2023. "Regional Heterogeneity Analysis of Residential Electricity Consumption in Chinese Cities: Based on Spatial Measurement Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-22, November.
    6. Martin Kalthaus & Jiatang Sun, 2021. "Determinants of Electric Vehicle Diffusion in China," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(3), pages 473-510, November.
    7. Anselin, Luc & Bera, Anil K. & Florax, Raymond & Yoon, Mann J., 1996. "Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 77-104, February.
    8. Kenneth A. Small & Kurt Van Dender, 2007. "Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-52.
    9. Collantes, Gustavo, 2006. "The California Zero-Emission Vehicle Mandate: A Study of the Policy Process, 1990-2004," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7672m22n, University of California Transportation Center.
    10. Ling Jin & Connor P. Jackson & Yuhan Wang & Qianmiao Chen & Tin Ho & C. Anna Spurlock & Aaron Brooker & Jacob Holden & Jeffrey Gonder & Mohamed Amine Bouzaghrane & Bingrong Sun & Shivam Sharda & Venu , 2024. "Technology progress and clean vehicle policies on fleet turnover and equity: insights from household vehicle fleet micro-simulations with ATLAS," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(8), pages 1399-1422, November.
    11. Wolf, Ingo & Schröder, Tobias & Neumann, Jochen & de Haan, Gerhard, 2015. "Changing minds about electric cars: An empirically grounded agent-based modeling approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 269-285.
    12. Betz, Timm & Cook, Scott J. & Hollenbach, Florian M., 2020. "Spatial interdependence and instrumental variable models," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 646-661, October.
    13. Muehlegger, Erich & Rapson, David S., 2022. "Subsidizing low- and middle-income adoption of electric vehicles: Quasi-experimental evidence from California," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    14. Kenneth A. Small & Kurt Van Dender, 2007. "Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect," The Energy Journal, , vol. 28(1), pages 25-52, January.
    15. Sheldon, Tamara L. & Dua, Rubal, 2024. "The dynamic role of subsidies in promoting global electric vehicle sales," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    16. Jenn, Alan & Lee, Jae Hyun & Hardman, Scott & Tal, Gil, 2020. "An in-depth examination of electric vehicle incentives: Consumer heterogeneity and changing response over time," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 97-109.
    17. Dunning, Thad, 2008. "Model Specification in Instrumental-Variables Regression," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 290-302, July.
    18. Makena Coffman & Paul Bernstein & Sherilyn Wee, 2017. "Electric vehicles revisited: a review of factors that affect adoption," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 79-93, January.
    19. Scott Hardman & Gil Tal, 2021. "Understanding discontinuance among California’s electric vehicle owners," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 538-545, May.
    20. Ajanovic, Amela & Haas, Reinhard, 2016. "Dissemination of electric vehicles in urban areas: Major factors for success," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1451-1458.
    21. Lin Zhou & Jianglong Li & Yangqing Dan & Chunping Xie & Houyin Long & Hongxun Liu, 2019. "Entering and Exiting: Productivity Evolution of Energy Supply in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jia, Wenjian & Jiang, Zhiqiu & Wang, Qian & Xu, Bin & Xiao, Mei, 2023. "Preferences for zero-emission vehicle attributes: Comparing early adopters with mainstream consumers in California," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 21-32.
    2. Sheldon, Tamara L. & Dua, Rubal, 2024. "The dynamic role of subsidies in promoting global electric vehicle sales," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    3. Correia Sinézio Martins, Edlaine & Lépine, Julien & Corbett, Jacqueline, 2024. "Assessing the effectiveness of financial incentives on electric vehicle adoption in Europe: Multi-period difference-in-difference approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Philip, Thara & Whitehead, Jake & Prato, Carlo G., 2023. "Adoption of electric vehicles in a laggard, car-dependent nation: Investigating the potential influence of V2G and broader energy benefits on adoption," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Zheng, Xinye & Li, Fanghua & Song, Shunfeng & Yu, Yihua, 2013. "Central government's infrastructure investment across Chinese regions: A dynamic spatial panel data approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 264-276.
    6. Mohanty, Biswajit & Bhanumurthy, N. R. & Dastidar, Ananya Ghosh, 2017. "What explains Regional Imbalances in Infrastructure?: Evidence from Indian States," Working Papers 17/197, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    7. Zhang, Tong & Burke, Paul J. & Wang, Qi, 2024. "Effectiveness of electric vehicle subsidies in China: A three-dimensional panel study," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Milan Straka & Pasquale De Falco & Gabriella Ferruzzi & Daniela Proto & Gijs van der Poel & Shahab Khormali & v{L}ubov{s} Buzna, 2019. "Predicting popularity of EV charging infrastructure from GIS data," Papers 1910.02498, arXiv.org.
    9. Zheng, Xinye & Yu, Yihua & Wang, Jing & Deng, Huihui, 2013. "Identifying the determinants and spatial nexus of provincial carbon intensity in China: A dynamic spatial panel approach," MPRA Paper 56088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Huntington, Hillard G., 2024. "US gasoline response to vehicle fuel efficiency: A contribution to the direct rebound effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    11. Klemick, Heather & Kopits. Elizabeth & Wolverton, Ann, 2019. "Consumer Valuation of Fuel Economy: Findings from Recent Panel Studies," National Center for Environmental Economics-NCEE Working Papers 283626, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
    12. Johannes Gessner & Wolfgang Habla & Benjamin Rübenacker & Ulrich J. Wagner, 2025. "No Place Like Home: Charging Infrastructure and the Environmental Advantage of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_663, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    13. Ahmad, Hafsoah & Rahul, T.M. & Asija, Navdeep K., 2025. "Accelerators and hurdles, and their mediating effects on electric vehicle adoption," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 20-30.
    14. Clovis Zapata & Paul Nieuwenhuis, 2009. "Driving on liquid sunshine – the Brazilian biofuel experience: a policy driven analysis," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(8), pages 528-541, December.
    15. Fidel Gonzalez & Diya Mazumder, 2025. "Do Declining Vehicle Attributes Eliminate the Direct Rebound Effect?," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 198-224, April.
    16. Oussama Zouabi & Mohamed Kadria, 2016. "The direct and indirect effect of climate change on citrus production in Tunisia: a macro and micro spatial analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 307-324, November.
    17. Ji, Qing & Wang, Chunan & Fan, Ying, 2022. "Environmental and welfare effects of vehicle purchase tax: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    18. Christos Karolemeas & Stefanos Tsigdinos & Panagiotis G. Tzouras & Alexandros Nikitas & Efthimios Bakogiannis, 2021. "Determining Electric Vehicle Charging Station Location Suitability: A Qualitative Study of Greek Stakeholders Employing Thematic Analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-21, February.
    19. Nehiba, Cody, 2024. "Timing Matters: Estimating within-day variation in the rebound effect," National Center for Environmental Economics-NCEE Working Papers 348907, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
    20. Lai, Aolin & Wang, Qunwei & Cui, Lianbiao, 2022. "Can market segmentation lead to green paradox? Evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PC).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:313:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224033851. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.