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The climate and health effects of a USA switch from coal to gas electricity generation

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  • Lueken, Roger
  • Klima, Kelly
  • Griffin, W. Michael
  • Apt, Jay

Abstract

Abundant natural gas at low prices has prompted industry and politicians to welcome gas as a ‘bridge fuel’ between today's coal-intensive electric power generation and a future low-carbon grid. We used existing national datasets and publicly available models to investigate the upper limit to the emission benefits of natural gas in the USA power sector. As a limiting case, we analyzed a switch of all USA coal plants to natural gas plants, occurring in 2016. The human health benefits of such a switch are substantial: SO2 emissions are reduced from the baseline (MATS (Mercury and Air Toxics Standard) retrofits by 2016) by more than 90%, and NOX emissions by more than 60%, reducing total national annual health damages by $20 – $50 billion annually. While the effect on global temperatures is small out to 2040, the USA power plant fleet's contribution could be changed by as much as −50% to +5% depending on the rate of fugitive CH4 emissions and efficiency of replacement gas plants.

Suggested Citation

  • Lueken, Roger & Klima, Kelly & Griffin, W. Michael & Apt, Jay, 2016. "The climate and health effects of a USA switch from coal to gas electricity generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1160-1166.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:109:y:2016:i:c:p:1160-1166
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.03.078
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    11. Rhushikesh Ghotkar & Ellen B. Stechel & Ivan Ermanoski & Ryan J. Milcarek, 2020. "Hybrid Fuel Cell—Supercritical CO 2 Brayton Cycle for CO 2 Sequestration-Ready Combined Heat and Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-20, September.
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    13. Kazemi, Abolghasem & Moreno, Jovita & Iribarren, Diego, 2022. "Techno-economic comparison of optimized natural gas combined cycle power plants with CO2 capture," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    14. Markovska, Natasa & Duić, Neven & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Guzović, Zvonimir & Piacentino, Antonio & Schlör, Holger & Lund, Henrik, 2016. "Addressing the main challenges of energy security in the twenty-first century – Contributions of the conferences on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1504-1512.
    15. Zeng, Jingjing & Bao, Rui & McFarland, Michael, 2022. "Clean energy substitution: The effect of transitioning from coal to gas on air pollution," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    16. Maamoun, Nada & Kennedy, Ryan & Jin, Xiaomeng & Urpelainen, Johannes, 2020. "Identifying coal-fired power plants for early retirement," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
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