The forecast of motor vehicle, energy demand and CO2 emission from Taiwan's road transportation sector
The grey forecasting model, GM(1,1) was adopted in this study to capture the development trends of the number of motor vehicles, vehicular energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Taiwan during 2007-2025. In addition, the simulation of different economic development scenarios were explored by modifying the value of the development coefficient, a, in the grey forecasting model to reflect the influence of economic growth and to be a helpful reference for realizing traffic CO2 reduction potential and setting CO2 mitigation strategies for Taiwan. Results showed that the vehicle fleet, energy demand and CO2 emitted by the road transportation system continued to rise at the annual growth rates of 3.64%, 3.25% and 3.23% over the next 18 years. Besides, the simulation of different economic development scenarios revealed that the lower and upper bound values of allowable vehicles in 2025 are 30.2 and 36.3 million vehicles, respectively, with the traffic fuel consumption lies between 25.8 million kiloliters to 31.0 million kiloliters. The corresponding emission of CO2 will be between 61.1 and 73.4 million metric tons in the low- and high-scenario profiles.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Adams, F. Gerard & Shachmurove, Yochanan, 2008. "Modeling and forecasting energy consumption in China: Implications for Chinese energy demand and imports in 2020," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1263-1278, May.
- Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1997. "Vehicle ownership to 2015: Implications for energy use and emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(14-15), pages 1121-1127, December.
- Ramanathan, R., 2001. "The long-run behaviour of transport performance in India: a cointegration approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 309-320, May.
- Wang, Rong-Tsu & Ho, Chien-Ta & Feng, Cheng-Min & Yang, Yung-Kai, 2004. "A comparative analysis of the operational performance of Taiwan's major airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 353-360.
- Haldenbilen, Soner & Ceylan, Halim, 2005. "Genetic algorithm approach to estimate transport energy demand in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 89-98, January.
- Akay, Diyar & Atak, Mehmet, 2007. "Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1670-1675.
- Haldenbilen, Soner, 2006. "Fuel price determination in transportation sector using predicted energy and transport demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3078-3086, November.
- Litman, Todd, 2005. "Efficient vehicles versus efficient transportation. Comparing transportation energy conservation strategies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 121-129, March.
- Samimi, Rodney, 1995. "Road transport energy demand in Australia: A cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 329-339, October.
- Dreher, M & Wietschel, M & Göbelt, M & Rentz, O, 1999. "Energy price elasticities of energy-service demand for passenger traffic in the Federal Republic of Germany," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 133-140.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:8:p:2952-2961. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.