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A multi-model assessment of energy and emissions for India's transportation sector through 2050

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  • Paladugula, Anantha Lakshmi
  • Kholod, Nazar
  • Chaturvedi, Vaibhav
  • Ghosh, Probal Pratap
  • Pal, Sarbojit
  • Clarke, Leon
  • Evans, Meredydd
  • Kyle, Page
  • Koti, Poonam Nagar
  • Parikh, Kirit
  • Qamar, Sharif
  • Wilson, Sangeetha Ann

Abstract

This paper focuses on comparing the framework and projections of energy consumption and emissions from India's transportation sector up to 2050. To understand the role of road transport in energy demand and emissions, five modeling teams developed baseline projections for India's transportation sector as part of inter-model comparison exercise under the Sustainable Growth Working Group (SGWG) of the US-India Energy Dialog. Based on modeling results, we explore the developments in India's passenger and freight road transport, including changes in the modal shift and the resulting changes in energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) and particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions. We find significant differences in the base-year data and parameters for future projections, namely energy consumption by transport in general and by mode, service demand for passenger and freight transport. Variation in modeling assumptions across modeling teams reflects the difference in opinion among the different modeling teams which in turn reflects the underlying uncertainty with respect to key assumptions. We have identified several important data gaps in our knowledge about the development of the transportation sector in India. The results of this inter-model study can be used by Indian policy makers to set quantified targets in emission reductions from the transportation sector.

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  • Paladugula, Anantha Lakshmi & Kholod, Nazar & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Ghosh, Probal Pratap & Pal, Sarbojit & Clarke, Leon & Evans, Meredydd & Kyle, Page & Koti, Poonam Nagar & Parikh, Kirit & Qamar, Sha, 2018. "A multi-model assessment of energy and emissions for India's transportation sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 10-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:116:y:2018:i:c:p:10-18
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.01.037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Ou, Yang & Kittner, Noah & Babaee, Samaneh & Smith, Steven J. & Nolte, Christopher G. & Loughlin, Daniel H., 2021. "Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    4. Laha, Priyanka & Chakraborty, Basab, 2021. "Cost optimal combinations of storage technologies for maximizing renewable integration in Indian power system by 2040: Multi-region approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 233-247.
    5. Jha, Amit Prakash & Singh, Sanjay Kumar, 2022. "Future mobility in India from a changing energy mix perspective," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 706-724.
    6. Deendarlianto, & Widyaparaga, Adhika & Widodo, Tri & Handika, Irine & Chandra Setiawan, Indra & Lindasista, Alia, 2020. "Modelling of Indonesian road transport energy sector in order to fulfill the national energy and oil reduction targets," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 504-518.
    7. Wang, Bo & Sun, Yefei & Chen, Qingxiang & Wang, Zhaohua, 2018. "Determinants analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in passenger and freight transportation sectors in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 127-132.
    8. Gupta, Dipti & Dhar, Subash, 2022. "Exploring the freight transportation transitions for mitigation and development pathways of India," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 156-175.
    9. Kumar, Aalok & Anbanandam, Ramesh, 2022. "Assessment of environmental and social sustainability performance of the freight transportation industry: An index-based approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 43-60.

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