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Assessing economic and CO2 emission impacts of China's freight structure adjustment

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  • Yang, Rui
  • Yuan, Weihong
  • Li, Ke

Abstract

Freight serves as the lifeblood of the economy, and shifts in transportation modes impact the economic and environmental systems. This study develops the China Freight Transportation-General Equilibrium Model (CFT-GEM) to evaluate the impacts of freight modes adjustments. Key findings: (1) By 2050, “road-to-rail” and “road-to-water” increase CO2 emissions of rail and waterway freight by 5.84–42.45 % and 2.49–11.39 % respectively, while reducing road emissions by 0.61–5 %, cutting total freight CO2 by 0.38–3.3 %. (2) These shifts will incur certain economic costs and, through substitution, cost, and industrial effects, achieve cumulative reductions of 103.08–1739.9 million tons by 2050. (3) The effects of freight mode shifts vary by product characteristics. Road-to-rail offers lower costs and better emission reductions for most sectors, while road-to-water suits energy-intensive sectors. It implies freight structure adjustment strategies should align with product attributes. This study provides a quantitative basis for evaluating economic and environmental impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Rui & Yuan, Weihong & Li, Ke, 2025. "Assessing economic and CO2 emission impacts of China's freight structure adjustment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:152:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325008679
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109037
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