IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v141y2025ics014098832400759x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the carbon rebound effect of digitalization and policy responses: A CDEEEA/CGE based analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Sheng-Hao
  • Yang, Jun
  • Cheng, Jixin
  • Li, Xiaoming

Abstract

Digitalization offers tremendous potential for low-carbon development in China, yet the carbon rebound effect it triggers remains controversial. This paper develops China's Digital-Economy-Energy-Environment Analysis/Computable General Equilibrium (CDEEEA/CGE) model, which assesses the actual input of ICT and its factor characteristics for the first time. On this basis, the digitalization process of China is modeled based on the endogenous drive of digital industrialization, and the carbon emission effect of digitalization is innovatively decomposed, thereby revealing the formation mechanism of the carbon rebound effect. Research results indicate that in the digital industrialization scenario, through the substitution effect, the share of ICT factor input and the share of the tertiary industry increase, which leads to a favorable performance of carbon intensity (−3.61 % in 2060). However, the extra carbon emissions (256.64 Mt. in 2060) resulting from the output effect and the income effect completely counteract the expected emission reductions (116.4 Mt. in 2060), triggering a backfire effect. Nevertheless, policymakers should not narrowly pursue a low rebound effect, as its essence represents the redistribution of the digitalization dividend. This paper further points out that the complementary environmental policy can largely retain the economic benefits of digitalization while eliminating the environmental impact of the carbon rebound effect. This research offers novel theoretical grounds and practical routes for sustainable development in the digitalization backdrop.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Sheng-Hao & Yang, Jun & Cheng, Jixin & Li, Xiaoming, 2025. "Exploring the carbon rebound effect of digitalization and policy responses: A CDEEEA/CGE based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:141:y:2025:i:c:s014098832400759x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108050
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014098832400759X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108050?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Zhaohua & Lu, Milin & Wang, Jian-Cai, 2014. "Direct rebound effect on urban residential electricity use: An empirical study in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 124-132.
    2. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2008. "A Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 3-24, Winter.
    3. Fei, Rilong & Wang, Haolin & Wen, Zihao & Yuan, Zhen & Yuan, Kaihua & Chunga, Joseph, 2021. "Tracking factor substitution and the rebound effect of China’s agricultural energy consumption: A new research perspective from asymmetric response," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    4. Nakatani, Ryota, 2021. "Total factor productivity enablers in the ICT industry: A cross-country firm-level analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(9).
    5. Chen, Qian & Zha, Donglan & Salman, Muhammad, 2022. "The influence of carbon tax on CO2 rebound effect and welfare in Chinese households," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Paroussos, Leonidas & Fragkos, Panagiotis & Capros, Pantelis & Fragkiadakis, Kostas, 2015. "Assessment of carbon leakage through the industry channel: The EU perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 204-219.
    7. Huang, Qiongyu & Xu, Chuhong & Xue, Xiaolong & Zhu, Hui, 2023. "Can digital innovation improve firm performance: Evidence from digital patents of Chinese listed firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Khogali, Hisham O. & Mekid, Samir, 2023. "The blended future of automation and AI: Examining some long-term societal and ethical impact features," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Zhong, Mei-Rui & Cao, Meng-Yuan & Zou, Han, 2022. "The carbon reduction effect of ICT: A perspective of factor substitution," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    10. Ceccobelli, M. & Gitto, S. & Mancuso, P., 2012. "ICT capital and labour productivity growth: A non-parametric analysis of 14 OECD countries," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 282-292.
    11. Ren, Siyu & Hao, Yu & Xu, Lu & Wu, Haitao & Ba, Ning, 2021. "Digitalization and energy: How does internet development affect China's energy consumption?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    12. McFarland, J. R. & Reilly, J. M. & Herzog, H. J., 2004. "Representing energy technologies in top-down economic models using bottom-up information," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 685-707, July.
    13. Syed Ali Abbas & Asif Zaman, 2024. "Does digitalisation help achieve (selected) socio‐economic SDGs? Evidence from emerging economies," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 6088-6103, December.
    14. Lu, Yingying & Liu, Yu & Zhou, Meifang, 2017. "Rebound effect of improved energy efficiency for different energy types: A general equilibrium analysis for China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 248-256.
    15. Mu, Yaqian & Cai, Wenjia & Evans, Samuel & Wang, Can & Roland-Holst, David, 2018. "Employment impacts of renewable energy policies in China: A decomposition analysis based on a CGE modeling framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 256-267.
    16. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang, 2022. "Is the rebound effect useless? A case study on the technological progress of the power industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    17. Chun-Yi Lin & Chen Li & Sadaf Mahmood & Feng Guo & Zuoyi Qian, 2024. "Integrating Culture and Tourism: A Resilient Scale for Digital Transformation Innovation," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(4), pages 16122-16155, December.
    18. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    19. Li, Jianglong & Lin, Boqiang, 2017. "Rebound effect by incorporating endogenous energy efficiency: A comparison between heavy industry and light industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 347-357.
    20. Wu, Huihuang & Yang, Haozhe & Hu, Xiurong & Zheng, Leyi & Li, Jie & Li, Yangfan & Wang, Xian & Ge, Wendong & Zhou, Yuhan & Liu, Ying & Liu, Junfeng & Wang, Yuqing & Ma, Jianmin & Tao, Shu, 2024. "Complementing carbon tax with renewable energy investment to decarbonize the energy system in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    21. Li, Baolin & Wang, Jia & Nassani, Abdelmohsen A. & Binsaeed, Rima H. & Li, Zeyun, 2023. "The future of Green energy: A panel study on the role of renewable resources in the transition to a Green economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    22. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang, 2022. "CEEEA2.0 model: A dynamic CGE model for energy-environment-economy analysis with available data and code," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    23. Huifang E & Shuangjie Li & Liming Wang & Huidan Xue, 2023. "The Impact of ICT Capital Services on Economic Growth and Energy Efficiency in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-21, May.
    24. Galvin, Ray, 2015. "The ICT/electronics question: Structural change and the rebound effect," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 23-31.
    25. Guo, Zhengquan & Zhang, Xingping & Zheng, Yuhua & Rao, Rao, 2014. "Exploring the impacts of a carbon tax on the Chinese economy using a CGE model with a detailed disaggregation of energy sectors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 455-462.
    26. Dai, Hancheng & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Liu, Jian & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Green growth: The economic impacts of large-scale renewable energy development in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 435-449.
    27. Matt, Dominik T. & Pedrini, Giulio & Bonfanti, Angelo & Orzes, Guido, 2023. "Industrial digitalization. A systematic literature review and research agenda," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 47-78.
    28. Lee, Jong-Wha & Song, Eunbi & Kwak, Do Won, 2020. "Aging labor, ICT capital, and productivity in Japan and Korea," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    29. Li, Jianglong & Liu, Hongxun & Du, Kerui, 2019. "Does market-oriented reform increase energy rebound effect? Evidence from China's regional development," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-1.
    30. Bye, Brita & Fæhn, Taran & Rosnes, Orvika, 2018. "Residential energy efficiency policies: Costs, emissions and rebound effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 191-201.
    31. Karplus, Valerie J. & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John M., 2010. "Prospects for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the United States and Japan: A general equilibrium analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 620-641, October.
    32. Wang, Peng & Dai, Han-cheng & Ren, Song-yan & Zhao, Dai-qing & Masui, Toshihiko, 2015. "Achieving Copenhagen target through carbon emission trading: Economic impacts assessment in Guangdong Province of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 212-227.
    33. Zhu, Yuke & Lan, Mudan, 2023. "Digital economy and carbon rebound effect: Evidence from Chinese cities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    34. Steven Denney & Travis Southin & David A. Wolfe, 2021. "Entrepreneurs and cluster evolution: the transformation of Toronto’s ICT cluster," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 196-207, February.
    35. Mu, Yaqian & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2018. "The economic impact of China's INDC: Distinguishing the roles of the renewable energy quota and the carbon market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2955-2966.
    36. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2014. "Development of a global computable general equilibrium model coupled with detailed energy end-use technology," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 296-306.
    37. Yang, Lisha & Li, Zhi, 2017. "Technology advance and the carbon dioxide emission in China – Empirical research based on the rebound effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 150-161.
    38. Zhang, Xiaomeng & Wei, Chu, 2024. "Inequality of carbon intensity in the Chinese manufacturing sector: The role of information and communication technology infrastructure," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 194-203.
    39. An, Kangxin & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2023. "Low-carbon technology diffusion and economic growth of China: an evolutionary general equilibrium framework," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 253-263.
    40. Shao, Shuai & Guo, Longfei & Yu, Mingliang & Yang, Lili & Guan, Dabo, 2019. "Does the rebound effect matter in energy import-dependent mega-cities? Evidence from Shanghai (China)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 212-228.
    41. Wang, Ke & Wang, Can & Chen, Jining, 2009. "Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2930-2940, August.
    42. Kulmer, Veronika & Seebauer, Sebastian, 2019. "How robust are estimates of the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvements? A sensitivity analysis of consumer heterogeneity and elasticities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-14.
    43. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang, 2020. "Rethinking the choice of carbon tax and carbon trading in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    44. Liu, Yu & Lu, Yingying, 2015. "The Economic impact of different carbon tax revenue recycling schemes in China: A model-based scenario analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 96-105.
    45. Wang, Jianda & Dong, Kangyin & Sha, Yezhou & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Envisaging the carbon emissions efficiency of digitalization: The case of the internet economy for China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    46. Wang, Heting & Wang, Huijuan & Guan, Rong, 2024. "Digitalization of industries and labor mobility in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    47. Chen, Zi-yue & Huang, Zhen-hai & Nie, Pu-yan, 2018. "Industrial characteristics and consumption efficiency from a nexus perspective – Based on Anhui’s Empirical Statistics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 281-290.
    48. Qi, Tianyu & Zhang, Xiliang & Karplus, Valerie J., 2014. "The energy and CO2 emissions impact of renewable energy development in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 60-69.
    49. Zhuoxi Yu & Shan Liu & Zhichuan Zhu, 2022. "Has the Digital Economy Reduced Carbon Emissions?: Analysis Based on Panel Data of 278 Cities in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-18, September.
    50. Jeffrey C. Peters & Thomas W. Hertel, 2016. "Matrix balancing with unknown total costs: preserving economic relationships in the electric power sector," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 1-20, March.
    51. Xu, Bing & Sendra-García, Javier & Gao, Yanxia & Chen, Xiaohui, 2020. "Driving total factor productivity: Capital and labor with tax allocation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    52. Lange, Steffen & Pohl, Johanna & Santarius, Tilman, 2020. "Digitalization and energy consumption. Does ICT reduce energy demand?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang, 2022. "Is the rebound effect useless? A case study on the technological progress of the power industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    2. Tian, Xu & Dai, Hancheng & Geng, Yong & Huang, Zhen & Masui, Toshihiko & Fujita, Tsuyoshi, 2017. "The effects of carbon reduction on sectoral competitiveness in China: A case of Shanghai," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 270-278.
    3. Li, Zhaoling & Dai, Hancheng & Sun, Lu & Xie, Yang & Liu, Zhu & Wang, Peng & Yabar, Helmut, 2018. "Exploring the impacts of regional unbalanced carbon tax on CO2 emissions and industrial competitiveness in Liaoning province of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 9-19.
    4. Li, Wei & Jia, Zhijie, 2016. "The impact of emission trading scheme and the ratio of free quota: A dynamic recursive CGE model in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Mu, Yaqian & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2018. "The economic impact of China's INDC: Distinguishing the roles of the renewable energy quota and the carbon market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2955-2966.
    6. Fan, Dian & Chen, Shaoqing, 2024. "No pain, no gain? Simulation of carbon reduction potential and socioeconomic effects of voluntary carbon trading in China during 2021–2060," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 375(C).
    7. Lin, Boqiang & Zhu, Runqing, 2022. "How does market-oriented reform influence the rebound effect of China’s mining industry?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 34-44.
    8. Huang, Hai & Roland-Holst, David & Springer, Cecilia & Lin, Jiang & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2019. "Emissions trading systems and social equity: A CGE assessment for China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1254-1265.
    9. Mittal, Shivika & Dai, Hancheng & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Bridging greenhouse gas emissions and renewable energy deployment target: Comparative assessment of China and India," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 301-313.
    10. Dai, Hancheng & Xie, Yang & Liu, Jingyu & Masui, Toshihiko, 2018. "Aligning renewable energy targets with carbon emissions trading to achieve China's INDCs: A general equilibrium assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 4121-4131.
    11. An, Kangxin & Zhang, Shihui & Huang, Hai & Liu, Yuan & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2021. "Socioeconomic impacts of household participation in emission trading scheme: A Computable General Equilibrium-based case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    12. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2018. "The energy, environmental and economic impacts of carbon tax rate and taxation industry: A CGE based study in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 558-568.
    13. Lin, Boqiang & Huang, Chenchen, 2023. "Nonlinear relationship between digitization and energy efficiency: Evidence from transnational panel data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    14. Dong, Huijuan & Dai, Hancheng & Geng, Yong & Fujita, Tsuyoshi & Liu, Zhe & Xie, Yang & Wu, Rui & Fujii, Minoru & Masui, Toshihiko & Tang, Liang, 2017. "Exploring impact of carbon tax on China’s CO2 reductions and provincial disparities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 596-603.
    15. Peng, Hua-Rong & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Liu, Jing-Yue, 2023. "The energy rebound effect of digital development: Evidence from 285 cities in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    16. Wu, Rui & Dai, Hancheng & Geng, Yong & Xie, Yang & Tian, Xu, 2019. "Impacts of export restructuring on national economy and CO2 emissions: A general equilibrium analysis for China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C), pages 64-78.
    17. Liu, Zhiqing & Geng, Yong & Dai, Hancheng & Wilson, Jeffrey & Xie, Yang & Wu, Rui & You, Wei & Yu, Zhongjue, 2018. "Regional impacts of launching national carbon emissions trading market: A case study of Shanghai," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 232-240.
    18. Khoshkalam Khosroshahi, Musa & Sayadi, Mohammad, 2020. "Tracking the sources of rebound effect resulting from the efficiency improvement in petrol, diesel, natural gas and electricity consumption; A CGE analysis for Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    19. Rongxin Wu & Boqiang Lin, 2022. "Does Energy Efficiency Realize Energy Conservation in the Iron and Steel Industry? A Perspective of Energy Rebound Effect," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-20, September.
    20. Wu, Huihuang & Zhou, Yuhan & Wang, Xian & Hu, Xiurong & Zhang, Shihui & Ren, Yang & Liu, Junfeng & Liu, Ying & Tao, Shu, 2024. "The climate, health, and economic outcomes across different carbon pricing policies to achieve China's climate goals," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:141:y:2025:i:c:s014098832400759x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.