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Hindsight effect: What are the actual cash flow timing skills of mutual fund investors?

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  • Muñoz, Fernando
  • Vicente, Ruth

Abstract

This paper analyzes the cash flow timing skills of mutual fund investors, controlling for the hindsight effect (HE). We analyze a sample of US domestic equity mutual funds in the period 1990–2016. Before controlling for the HE, we find that mutual fund investors worsen the return that they achieve with their timing decisions by 1.80% annually. However, after controlling for the HE, the actual prejudice is 0.71% annually. We establish several additional controls obtaining these next results: (i) more sophisticated and informed investors show better timing skills; (ii) the HE is more relevant to less sophisticated investors; (iii) investors wrongly time their exposure to the stock market; and (iv) incubation bias does not significantly affect previous results.

Suggested Citation

  • Muñoz, Fernando & Vicente, Ruth, 2018. "Hindsight effect: What are the actual cash flow timing skills of mutual fund investors?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 181-193.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:45:y:2018:i:c:p:181-193
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2017.11.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, C-L. & Hsu, S.-H. & McAleer, M.J., 2018. "Asymmetric Risk Impacts of Chinese Tourists to Taiwan," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2018-18, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Jukka Ilomaki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Simple Market Timing with Moving Averages," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-048/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Market Timing with Moving Averages," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(7), pages 1-25, June.
    4. Sun, Lingxia & Lee, Dong Wook, 2019. "Dollar-weighted return on aggregate corporate sector: How is it distributed across countries?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash flow timing skills; Level of information; Level of investor sophistication; Hindsight effect; Incubation bias;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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