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What Are Stock Investors’ Actual Historical Returns? Evidence from Dollar-Weighted Returns

  • Ilia D. Dichev
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    The existing literature typically does not differentiate between security returns and the returns of investors in these securities. This study clarifies that investor and security returns differ because of the timing and magnitude of investor capital flows into and out of these securities. The empirical results indicate that actual investor returns are systematically lower than buy-and-hold returns for nearly all major international stock markets. These results imply that the historical equity premium and the cost of equity capital are likely lower than previously thought. (JEL G11, G12, G15)

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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.97.1.386
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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data/mar07/20041213_data.zip
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    Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): 97 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 386-401

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    Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:97:y:2007:i:1:p:386-401
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.97.1.386
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    1. David Ikenberry & Josef Lakonishok & Theo Vermaelen, 1994. "Market Underreaction to Open Market Share Repurchases," NBER Working Papers 4965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kent Daniel & Sheridan Titman, 2006. "Market Reactions to Tangible and Intangible Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1605-1643, 08.
    3. Paul A. Gompers & Josh Lerner, 2003. "The Really Long-Run Performance of Initial Public Offerings: The Pre-Nasdaq Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1355-1392, 08.
    4. Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, 08.
    5. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(4), pages 501-37, October.
    6. Alon Brav & Christopher Geczy & Paul A. Gompers, . "Is the Abnormal Return Following Equity Issuances Anomalous?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 2-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    7. Brian J. Henderson & Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Michael S. Weisbach, 2004. "World Markets for Raising New Capital," NBER Working Papers 10225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. James Claus, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    9. Spiess, D. Katherine & Affleck-Graves, John, 1995. "Underperformance in long-run stock returns following seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 243-267, July.
    10. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. " The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
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