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Impact of forecast errors on expansion planning of power systems with a renewables target

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  • Pineda, Salvador
  • Morales, Juan M.
  • Boomsma, Trine K.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of production forecast errors on the expansion planning of a power system and investigates the influence of market design to facilitate the integration of renewable generation. For this purpose, we propose a programming modeling framework to determine the generation and transmission expansion plan that minimizes system-wide investment and operating costs, while ensuring a given share of renewable generation in the electricity supply. Unlike existing ones, this framework includes both a day-ahead and a balancing market so as to capture the impact of both production forecasts and the associated prediction errors. Within this framework, we consider two paradigmatic market designs that essentially differ in whether the day-ahead generation schedule and the subsequent balancing re-dispatch are co-optimized or not. The main features and results of the model set-ups are discussed using an illustrative four-node example and a more realistic 24-node case study.

Suggested Citation

  • Pineda, Salvador & Morales, Juan M. & Boomsma, Trine K., 2016. "Impact of forecast errors on expansion planning of power systems with a renewables target," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(3), pages 1113-1122.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:248:y:2016:i:3:p:1113-1122
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.08.011
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    3. Sharifzadeh, Mahdi & Lubiano-Walochik, Helena & Shah, Nilay, 2017. "Integrated renewable electricity generation considering uncertainties: The UK roadmap to 50% power generation from wind and solar energies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 385-398.
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    5. Niina Helistö & Juha Kiviluoma & Hannele Holttinen & Jose Daniel Lara & Bri‐Mathias Hodge, 2019. "Including operational aspects in the planning of power systems with large amounts of variable generation: A review of modeling approaches," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(5), September.
    6. Skolfield, J. Kyle & Escobedo, Adolfo R., 2022. "Operations research in optimal power flow: A guide to recent and emerging methodologies and applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(2), pages 387-404.
    7. Feng, Li & Liu, Jiajun & Lu, Haitao & Liu, Bingzhi & Chen, Yuning & Wu, Shenyu, 2022. "Robust operation of distribution network based on photovoltaic/wind energy resources in condition of COVID-19 pandemic considering deterministic and probabilistic approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    8. Ramírez-Sagner, Gonzalo & Muñoz, Francisco D., 2019. "The effect of head-sensitive hydropower approximations on investments and operations in planning models for policy analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 38-47.
    9. Moreira, Alexandre & Pozo, David & Street, Alexandre & Sauma, Enzo & Strbac, Goran, 2021. "Climate‐aware generation and transmission expansion planning: A three‐stage robust optimization approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(3), pages 1099-1118.
    10. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Solbrekke, Ida Marie, 2018. "A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 440-459.
    11. Henrik C. Bylling & Salvador Pineda & Trine K. Boomsma, 2020. "The impact of short-term variability and uncertainty on long-term power planning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 284(1), pages 199-223, January.

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