Option pricing under a normal mixture distribution derived from the Markov tree model
We examine a Markov tree (MT) model for option pricing in which the dynamics of the underlying asset are modeled by a non-IID process. We show that the discrete probability mass function of log returns generated by the tree is closely approximated by a continuous mixture of two normal distributions. Using this normal mixture distribution and risk-neutral pricing, we derive a closed-form expression for European call option prices. We also suggest a regression tree-based method for estimating three volatility parameters σ, σ+, and σ− required to apply the MT model. We apply the MT model to price call options on 89 non-dividend paying stocks from the S&P 500 index. For each stock symbol on a given day, we use the same parameters to price options across all strikes and expires. Comparing against the Black–Scholes model, we find that the MT model’s prices are closer to market prices.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Longin, Francois, 2005. "The choice of the distribution of asset returns: How extreme value theory can help?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1017-1035, April.
- Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Donald Aingworth & Sanjiv Das & Rajeev Motwani, 2006. "A simple approach for pricing equity options with Markov switching state variables," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 95-105.
- Kon, Stanley J, 1984. " Models of Stock Returns-A Comparison," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 147-65, March.
- Kazmerchuk, Yuriy & Swishchuk, Anatoliy & Wu, Jianhong, 2007. "The pricing of options for securities markets with delayed response," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 69-79.
- John A. D. Appleby & John A. Daniels & Katja Krol, 2012. "A Black--Scholes Model with Long Memory," Papers 1202.5574, arXiv.org.
- Ning Cai & S. G. Kou, 2011. "Option Pricing Under a Mixed-Exponential Jump Diffusion Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(11), pages 2067-2081, November.
- Barone-Adesi, Giovanni, 1985. "Arbitrage Equilibrium with Skewed Asset Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 299-313, September.
- Heston, Steven L & Nandi, Saikat, 2000. "A Closed-Form GARCH Option Valuation Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 585-625.
- Andreas Behr & Ulrich Pötter, 2009. "Alternatives to the normal model of stock returns: Gaussian mixture, generalised logF and generalised hyperbolic models," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 49-68, January.
- Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-43.
- R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
- Ritchey, Robert J, 1990. "Call Option Valuation for Discrete Normal Mixtures," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 13(4), pages 285-96, Winter.
- Fielitz, Bruce D., 1975. "On the Stationarity of Transition Probability Matrices of Common Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(02), pages 327-339, June.
- D’Amico, Guglielmo & Janssen, Jacques & Manca, Raimondo, 2009. "European and American options: The semi-Markov case," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(15), pages 3181-3194.
- Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 1999. "Option Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Implied Binomial Trees: A Literature Review," MPRA Paper 11634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Buckley, Ian & Saunders, David & Seco, Luis, 2008. "Portfolio optimization when asset returns have the Gaussian mixture distribution," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1434-1461, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:223:y:2012:i:3:p:762-774. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.