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Operational asset replacement strategy: A real options approach


  • Zambujal-Oliveira, João
  • Duque, João


This paper analyses the problem of replacement by investigating the optimal moment of investment replacement in a given tax environment with a given depreciation policy. An operation and maintenance cost minimization model, based on the definition of equivalent annual cost, is applied to a real options paradigm. The developed methodology allows for an innovative evaluation of the flexibility of replacement process analysis. A new two-factor evaluation function is introduced to quantify decisions on asset replacement under a unique cycle environment. This study improves upon previous findings in the literature as it accounts for autonomous salvage value processes. Based on partial differential equations, this model achieves a general analytical solution and particular numerical solution. The results differ significantly from those observed in one-factor models by showing evidence of over-evaluation in optimal levels of replacement, and by confirming suspicions that different types of uncertainties produce non-monotonous effects on the optimal replacement level. The scientific contribution of this study lies in new and stronger approaches to equivalent annual cost literature, supplying an algorithm for operation and maintenance cost minimization that is conditioned by autonomous salvage value. This study also contributes to the real options literature by developing a two-factor model with Brownian processes applied to asset replacement.

Suggested Citation

  • Zambujal-Oliveira, João & Duque, João, 2011. "Operational asset replacement strategy: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(2), pages 318-325, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:210:y:2011:i:2:p:318-325

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Rust, John, 1985. "Stationary Equilibrium in a Market for Durable Assets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(4), pages 783-805, July.
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    5. Lai, K. K. & Leung, Francis K. N. & Tao, B. & Wang, S. Y., 2000. "Practices of preventive maintenance and replacement for engines: A case study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 294-306, July.
    6. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    7. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Ephraim Clark & Patrick Rousseau, 2002. "Strategic parameters for capital budgeting when abandonment value is stochastic," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 123-130.
    9. Martzoukos, Spiros H. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2002. "Real (investment) options with multiple sources of rare events," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 696-706, February.
    10. Ian M. Dobbs, 2004. "Replacement Investment: Optimal Economic Life Under Uncertainty," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5-6), pages 729-757.
    11. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    12. Yilmaz, Fatih, 2001. "Conditional investment policy under uncertainty and irreversibility," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 681-686, August.
    13. Banerji, Sanjay, 2008. "Asset sales and debt-equity swap under asymmetric information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 189-191, April.
    14. Mauer, David C. & Ott, Steven H., 1995. "Investment under Uncertainty: The Case of Replacement Investment Decisions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(04), pages 581-605, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:68:y:2017:i:8:d:10.1057_s41274-017-0236-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2013. "The effect of tax depreciation on the stochastic replacement policy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 229(1), pages 155-164.
    3. Nunes, Cláudia & Pimentel, Rita, 2017. "Analytical solution for an investment problem under uncertainties with shocks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(3), pages 1054-1063.
    4. Qiang Li & Junwei Wang & Jian Ni & Lap Keung Chu & Congdong Li, 0. "The optimal time to make a risky investment under a permanent exit option," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-12.
    5. Himpler, Sebastian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Repowering of Wind Turbines: Economics and Optimal Timing," FCN Working Papers 19/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    6. Zambujal-Oliveira, J., 2012. "Tax competition for foreign direct investment under information uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2269-2273.
    7. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2017. "Replacement decisions with multiple stochastic values and depreciation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(1), pages 174-184.
    8. repec:eee:proeco:v:193:y:2017:i:c:p:491-501 is not listed on IDEAS


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