IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecotra/v41y2025ics2212012224000510.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spread valuation and risk on transport infrastructure loans

Author

Listed:
  • Lara-Galera, Antonio
  • de Albornoz, Vicente Alcaraz-Carrillo
  • Molina-Millán, Juan
  • Muñoz-Medina, Belén

Abstract

For some time now, public administrations in many countries have been subject to strict budgetary constraints to control the public deficit. The Public Private Partnership (PPP) model in this context is a useful vehicle to develop public infrastructures. Despite its attractiveness and potential, there is an accumulation of evidence that questions this model with different experiences showing that PPPs are relatively risky projects for all participants. This is especially true for financial creditors, who usually lend up to 85% of the funds needed for financing the project.

Suggested Citation

  • Lara-Galera, Antonio & de Albornoz, Vicente Alcaraz-Carrillo & Molina-Millán, Juan & Muñoz-Medina, Belén, 2025. "Spread valuation and risk on transport infrastructure loans," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecotra:v:41:y:2025:i:c:s2212012224000510
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100392
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212012224000510
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100392?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dailami, Mansoor & Leipziger, Danny, 1998. "Infrastructure Project Finance and Capital Flows: A New Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1283-1298, July.
    2. Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, 2010. "Do Public-Private Partnerships Create Value for Money for the Public Sector? The Portuguese Experience," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27.
    3. Francesco Corielli & Stefano Gatti & Alessandro Steffanoni, 2010. "Risk Shifting through Nonfinancial Contracts: Effects on Loan Spreads and Capital Structure of Project Finance Deals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1295-1320, October.
    4. Carlos Fernandes & Miguel Ferreira & Filipe Moura, 2016. "PPPs — True Financial Costs and Hidden Returns," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 207-227, March.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    6. Claudia Girardone & Stuart Snaith, 2011. "Project finance loan spreads and disaggregated political risk," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(23), pages 1725-1734.
    7. Cruz, Carlos Oliveira & Sarmento, Joaquim Miranda, 2018. "The price of project finance loans for highways," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 161-172.
    8. Marco Sorge & Blaise Gadanecz, 2004. "The term structure of credit spreads in project finance," BIS Working Papers 159, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Luiz Eduardo Brandao & Eduardo Saraiva, 2008. "The option value of government guarantees in infrastructure projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(11), pages 1171-1180.
    10. Wei, Xiaokun & Ruan, Qingsong & Lv, Dayong & Wu, Youyi, 2022. "Transportation infrastructure and bond issuance credit spread: Evidence from the Chinese high-speed rail construction," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 30-47.
    11. Guedes, Sebastião S. & Pinto, João M., 2023. "Pricing of project finance bonds: A comparative analysis of primary market spreads," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Richter, Sylvia & Heyde, Frank & Horsch, Andreas & Wünsche, Andreas, 2021. "Determinants of project bond prices – Insights into infrastructure and energy capital markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    13. Francesco Corielli & Stefano Gatti & Alessandro Steffanoni, 2010. "Risk Shifting through Nonfinancial Contracts: Effects on Loan Spreads and Capital Structure of Project Finance Deals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1295-1320, October.
    14. Byoun, Soku & Xu, Zhaoxia, 2014. "Contracts, governance, and country risk in project finance: Theory and evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 124-144.
    15. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    16. Valerio Buscaino & Stefano Caselli & Francesco Corielli & Stefano Gatti, 2012. "Project Finance Collateralised Debt Obligations: an Empirical Analysis of Spread Determinants," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(5), pages 950-969, November.
    17. Stefanie Kleimeier & William L. Megginson, 2000. "Are Project Finance Loans Different From Other Syndicated Credits?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 13(1), pages 75-87, March.
    18. Frederic Blanc‐Brude & Roger Strange, 2007. "How Banks Price Loans to Public‐Private Partnerships: Evidence from the European Markets," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 19(4), pages 94-106, September.
    19. Antonio L. Lara Galera & Antonio Sánchez Soliño, 2010. "A Real Options Approach for the Valuation of Highway Concessions," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(3), pages 416-427, August.
    20. Pollio, Gerald, 1998. "Project finance and international energy development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(9), pages 687-697, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cruz, Carlos Oliveira & Sarmento, Joaquim Miranda, 2018. "The price of project finance loans for highways," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 161-172.
    2. Gabriel J. Power & Issouf Soumaré & Djerry C. Tandja M., 2022. "Certification by financial and legal advisors in private debt markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 893-923, November.
    3. Valerio Buscaino & Stefano Caselli & Francesco Corielli & Stefano Gatti, 2012. "Project Finance Collateralised Debt Obligations: an Empirical Analysis of Spread Determinants," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(5), pages 950-969, November.
    4. Jakob Müllner, 2017. "International project finance: review and implications for international finance and international business," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 97-133, April.
    5. Müllner, Jakob, 2016. "From uncertainty to risk—A risk management framework for market entry," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 800-814.
    6. Marques, Manuel O. & Pinto, João M., 2020. "A comparative analysis of ex ante credit spreads: Structured finance versus straight debt finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Gabriel J. Power & Djerry C. Mbianda Tandja, 2022. "Should lenders also advise? Evidence from project loans," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 961-985, December.
    8. João Pinto & Mário Coutinho dos Santos, 2014. "Corporate Financing Choices after the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 03, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    9. João Pinto, 2014. "What is Project Finance?," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 01, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    10. Kleimeier, S. & Megginson, W.L., 2002. "An empirical analysis of limited recourse project finance," Research Memorandum 066, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    11. Vink, Dennis, 2007. "An Empirical Analysis of Asset-Backed Securitization," MPRA Paper 10382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2008.
    12. Carlos CONTRERAS & Julio ANGULO, 2016. "How Do Credit Spreads Affect Risk Allocation In Public Ï¿½ Private Partnerships?," Journal of Public Administration, Finance and Law, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 9(9), pages 63-79, June.
    13. Barroco, Jose & Herrera, Maria, 2019. "Clearing barriers to project finance for renewable energy in developing countries: A Philippines case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    14. Zapata Quimbayo, Carlos Andrés, 2020. "Probabilidad de incumplimiento en inversiones de infraestructura: análisis a partir de modelos estructurales de riesgo de crédito || Probability of default in infrastructure projects: analysis from st," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 30(1), pages 327-345, December.
    15. Barroco, Jose, 2021. "Designing financeable ancillary services revenue contracts in developing economies: Learnings from the Philippines," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    16. Day-Yang Liu & Chia-Kan Wang & Chung-Yi Fang & Pei-Leen Liu, 2021. "A Study of Project Financing on the Defense Industry in Systems Thinking Perspective," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(2), pages 1-6.
    17. Dorobantu, Sinziana & Müllner, Jakob, 2019. "Debt-side governance and the geography of project finance syndicates," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 161-179.
    18. Benavides-Franco, Julián & Gómez, Juan M. & Pérez-Uribe, Miguel A., 2023. "Determinants of Project Finance success for renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 188-201.
    19. Pinto, João M. & Alves, Paulo P., 2016. "Project finance in Europe: An overview and discussion of key drivers," EIB Working Papers 2016/04, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    20. Megginson, William L., 2010. "Introduction to the special issue on project finance," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 47-48, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loan; PPP; Spreads; Derivatives; Risk;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecotra:v:41:y:2025:i:c:s2212012224000510. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecotra .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.