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New EU-scale environmental scenarios until 2050 – Scenario process and initial scenario applications

Author

Listed:
  • Priess, Joerg A.
  • Hauck, Jennifer
  • Haines-Young, Roy
  • Alkemade, Rob
  • Mandryk, Maryia
  • Veerkamp, Clara
  • Gyorgyi, Bela
  • Dunford, Rob
  • Berry, Pam
  • Harrison, Paula
  • Dick, Jan
  • Keune, Hans
  • Kok, Marcel
  • Kopperoinen, Leena
  • Lazarova, Tanya
  • Maes, Joachim
  • Pataki, György
  • Preda, Elena
  • Schleyer, Christian
  • Görg, Christoph
  • Vadineanu, Angheluta
  • Zulian, Grazia

Abstract

Understanding uncertainties and risks can be considered to be the main motivation behind environmental scenario studies to assess potential economic, environmental, social or technical developments and their expected consequences for society and environment. The scenario study presented in this paper was designed to contribute to the question of how natural capital and ecosystem services may evolve in Europe under different socio-environmental conditions. The study was conducted as part of OpenNESS, an on-going EU FP7 research project. We present the iterative participatory scenario process, the storylines and drivers, examples for regional applications, as well as initial feedback from stakeholders.

Suggested Citation

  • Priess, Joerg A. & Hauck, Jennifer & Haines-Young, Roy & Alkemade, Rob & Mandryk, Maryia & Veerkamp, Clara & Gyorgyi, Bela & Dunford, Rob & Berry, Pam & Harrison, Paula & Dick, Jan & Keune, Hans & Kok, 2018. "New EU-scale environmental scenarios until 2050 – Scenario process and initial scenario applications," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 29(PC), pages 542-551.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoser:v:29:y:2018:i:pc:p:542-551
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.08.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simone Pulver & Stacy D. VanDeveer, 2009. ""Thinking About Tomorrows": Scenarios, Global Environmental Politics, and Social Science Scholarship," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 9(2), pages 1-13, May.
    2. Robert Lempert, 2013. "Scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities and robust responses," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 627-646, April.
    3. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    4. Bouwma, Irene & Schleyer, Christian & Primmer, Eeva & Winkler, Klara Johanna & Berry, Pam & Young, Juliette & Carmen, Esther & Špulerová, Jana & Bezák, Peter & Preda, Elena & Vadineanu, Angheluta, 2018. "Adoption of the ecosystem services concept in EU policies," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 29(PB), pages 213-222.
    5. Paula A. Harrison & Robert W. Dunford & Ian P. Holman & Mark D. A. Rounsevell, 2016. "Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 885-890, September.
    6. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    7. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    8. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jax, Kurt & Furman, Eeva & Saarikoski, Heli & Barton, David N. & Delbaere, Ben & Dick, Jan & Duke, Guy & Görg, Christoph & Gómez-Baggethun, Erik & Harrison, Paula A. & Maes, Joachim & Pérez-Soba, M, 2018. "Handling a messy world: Lessons learned when trying to make the ecosystem services concept operational," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 29(PC), pages 415-427.
    2. Hagemann, N. & van der Zanden, E.H. & Willaarts, B.A. & Holzkämper, A. & Volk, M. & Rutz, C. & Priess, J.A. & Schönhart, M., 2020. "Bringing the sharing-sparing debate down to the ground—Lessons learnt for participatory scenario development," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

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