IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v513y2026ics0304380025004272.html

Two decades of species distribution modeling: A systematic review of methods and applications

Author

Listed:
  • ÖZKAN TÜMER, Yasemin
  • CAGLAYAN, İnci
  • YEŞİL, Ahmet
  • IVERSON, Louis

Abstract

This systematic review presents a comprehensive synthesis of species distribution modeling (SDM) applied to forest ecosystems in the context of climate change. Our analysis covered 50 papers each from four consecutive five-year periods dating from 2003 to 2022. We thus assessed 200 articles from the Web of Science database and meticulously categorized them according to 16 categories to discern patterns and developments in SDM research. The classification scheme included key factors such as continent of study, number of species modeled, grain size, type of species data, and the range of analytical and statistical models utilized.

Suggested Citation

  • ÖZKAN TÜMER, Yasemin & CAGLAYAN, İnci & YEŞİL, Ahmet & IVERSON, Louis, 2026. "Two decades of species distribution modeling: A systematic review of methods and applications," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 513(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:513:y:2026:i:c:s0304380025004272
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111441
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380025004272
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111441?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David A. Prieto-Torres & Luis A. Sánchez-González & Marco F. Ortiz-Ramírez & Jorge E. Ramírez-Albores & Erick A. García-Trejo & Adolfo G. Navarro-Sigüenza, 2021. "Climate warming affects spatio-temporal biodiversity patterns of a highly vulnerable Neotropical avifauna," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-20, April.
    2. Louis Iverson & Anantha Prasad & Stephen Matthews, 2008. "Modeling potential climate change impacts on the trees of the northeastern United States," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 487-516, June.
    3. Ariel Beltramino & Roberto Vogler & Diego Gutiérrez Gregoric & Alejandra Rumi, 2015. "Impact of climate change on the distribution of a giant land snail from South America: predicting future trends for setting conservation priorities on native malacofauna," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 621-633, August.
    4. repec:plo:pone00:0013569 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ji-Zhong Wan & Chun-Jing Wang & Fei-Hai Yu, 2017. "Spatial conservation prioritization for dominant tree species of Chinese forest communities under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 303-316, September.
    6. Di Traglia, Mario & Attorre, Fabio & Francesconi, Fabio & Valenti, Roberto & Vitale, Marcello, 2011. "Is cellular automata algorithm able to predict the future dynamical shifts of tree species in Italy under climate change scenarios? A methodological approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(4), pages 925-934.
    7. Brian C. O’Neill & Timothy R. Carter & Kristie Ebi & Paula A. Harrison & Eric Kemp-Benedict & Kasper Kok & Elmar Kriegler & Benjamin L. Preston & Keywan Riahi & Jana Sillmann & Bas J. Ruijven & Detlef, 2021. "Publisher Correction: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(3), pages 274-274, March.
    8. Marc Hanewinkel & Dominik A. Cullmann & Mart-Jan Schelhaas & Gert-Jan Nabuurs & Niklaus E. Zimmermann, 2013. "Climate change may cause severe loss in the economic value of European forest land," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(3), pages 203-207, March.
    9. M. Esteve-Selma & J. Martínez-Fernández & I. Hernández-García & J. Montávez & J. López-Hernández & J. Calvo, 2012. "Potential effects of climatic change on the distribution of Tetraclinis articulata, an endemic tree from arid Mediterranean ecosystems," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 663-678, August.
    10. Maria Triviño & Wilfried Thuiller & Mar Cabeza & Thomas Hickler & Miguel B Araújo, 2011. "The Contribution of Vegetation and Landscape Configuration for Predicting Environmental Change Impacts on Iberian Birds," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(12), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    12. Wilfried Thuiller & Sébastien Lavergne & Cristina Roquet & Isabelle Boulangeat & Bruno Lafourcade & Miguel. B. Araujo, 2011. "Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7335), pages 531-534, February.
    13. Marmion, Mathieu & Luoto, Miska & Heikkinen, Risto K. & Thuiller, Wilfried, 2009. "The performance of state-of-the-art modelling techniques depends on geographical distribution of species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(24), pages 3512-3520.
    14. Coops, Nicholas C. & Waring, Richard H., 2011. "Estimating the vulnerability of fifteen tree species under changing climate in Northwest North America," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(13), pages 2119-2129.
    15. Coops, Nicholas C. & Waring, Richard H. & Schroeder, Todd A., 2009. "Combining a generic process-based productivity model and a statistical classification method to predict the presence and absence of tree species in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(15), pages 1787-1796.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu, Yongquan & Liu, Guilin & Xian, Yuyang & Tang, Jiaqi & Zhong, Liming, 2024. "Climate change brings both opportunities and challenges to rural revitalization in China: Evidence from apple geographical indication predictions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Ghaboulian Zare, Sara & Amirmoeini, Kamyar & Bahn, Olivier & Baker, Ryan C. & Mousseau, Normand & Neshat, Najmeh & Trépanier, Martin & Wang, Qianpu, 2025. "The role of hydrogen in integrated assessment models: A review of recent developments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    3. Pliscoff, Patricio & Luebert, Federico & Hilger, Hartmut H. & Guisan, Antoine, 2014. "Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: A test with plants in an arid environment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 288(C), pages 166-177.
    4. Dymond, Caren Christine & Giles-Hansen, Krysta & Asante, Patrick, 2020. "The forest mitigation-adaptation nexus: Economic benefits of novel planting regimes," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. Brendan R Mapes & Steven D Prager & Christophe Béné & Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez, 2022. "Healthy and sustainable diets from today to 2050—The role of international trade," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(5), pages 1-20, May.
    6. Gupta, Rajit & Sharma, Laxmi Kant, 2019. "The process-based forest growth model 3-PG for use in forest management: A review," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 397(C), pages 55-73.
    7. Janko Arsić & Marko Stojanović & Lucia Petrovičová & Estelle Noyer & Slobodan Milanović & Jan Světlík & Petr Horáček & Jan Krejza, 2021. "Increased wood biomass growth is associated with lower wood density in Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl. saplings growing under elevated CO2," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, October.
    8. Zhao, Jianheng & Daigneault, Adam & Weiskittel, Aaron & Wei, Xinyuan, 2023. "Climate and socioeconomic impacts on Maine's forests under alternative future pathways," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    9. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    10. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    11. Komarek, Adam M. & Robinson, Sherman & Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, 2018. "The diet problem, nutrient supply, and the cost of diversity applied to livestock feeds," IFPRI discussion papers 1780, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    12. Mathys, A.S. & Coops, N.C. & Simard, S.W. & Waring, R.H. & Aitken, S.N., 2018. "Diverging distribution of seedlings and mature trees reflects recent climate change in British Columbia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 384(C), pages 145-153.
    13. Ruiyang Niu & Peter Teirlinck & Guanghua Xie & Yajie Yang, 2025. "Constraining or Enabling Green Management and Technological Innovation: How Do Firms Respond to Climate Policy Uncertainty?," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5), pages 5435-5458, July.
    14. Nina Tiel & Fabian Fopp & Philipp Brun & Johan Hoogen & Dirk Nikolaus Karger & Cecilia M. Casadei & Lisha Lyu & Devis Tuia & Niklaus E. Zimmermann & Thomas W. Crowther & Loïc Pellissier, 2024. "Regional uniqueness of tree species composition and response to forest loss and climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    15. Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti, 2019. "Does Harmful Climate Increase Or Decrease Migration? Evidence From Rural Households In Nigeria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-36, November.
    16. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    17. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.
    18. repec:ags:aaea22:343581 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Islam, AFM Tariqul & Islam, AKM Saiful & Islam, GM Tarekul & Bala, Sujit Kumar & Salehin, Mashfiqus & Choudhury, Apurba Kanti & Dey, Nepal C. & Hossain, Akbar, 2022. "Adaptation strategies to increase water productivity of wheat under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    20. Jaewon Kwak & Huiseong Noh & Soojun Kim & Vijay P. Singh & Seung Jin Hong & Duckgil Kim & Keonhaeng Lee & Narae Kang & Hung Soo Kim, 2014. "Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    21. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:513:y:2026:i:c:s0304380025004272. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.