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Nonparametric estimation of matching efficiency and elasticity in a marriage agency platform: 2014–2025

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  • Otani, Suguru

Abstract

This paper examines monthly matching efficiency in the Japanese marriage market using novel data from IBJ, the country’s largest structured matching platform. Unlike administrative or dating app data, IBJ provides full search, dating, and matching logs based on verified profiles and confirmed engagements. Users are highly selected into serious marriage search via costly screening. Covering 3.3% of national marriages annually, I estimate time-varying matching functions using a nonparametric approach. Matching efficiency triples between 2014 and 2025, with diverging elasticities indicating increasingly asymmetric responsiveness. Results show how digital intermediation reshapes partner search in modern marriage markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Otani, Suguru, 2025. "Nonparametric estimation of matching efficiency and elasticity in a marriage agency platform: 2014–2025," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:256:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525004549
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112617
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Christopher A. Pissarides & Barbara Petrongolo, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June.
    5. Suguru Otani, 2024. "Nonparametric Estimation of Matching Efficiency and Mismatch in Labor Markets via Public Employment Security Offices in Japan, 1972-2024," Papers 2407.20931, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    6. Pierre-André Chiappori & Bernard Salanié & Yoram Weiss, 2017. "Partner Choice, Investment in Children, and the Marital College Premium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2109-2167, August.
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    9. Ignacio Rios & Daniela Saban & Fanyin Zheng, 2023. "Improving Match Rates in Dating Markets Through Assortment Optimization," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 25(4), pages 1304-1323, July.
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    12. Egebark, Johan & Ekström, Mathias & Plug, Erik & van Praag, Mirjam, 2021. "Brains or beauty? Causal evidence on the returns to education and attractiveness in the online dating market," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Chihiro Inoue & Yusuke Ishihata & Suguru Otani, 2026. "Marital Sorting on Pre-Marital Preferences for Household Behavior," Papers 2603.25372, arXiv.org.
    2. Kazuki Sekiya & Suguru Otani & Yuki Komatsu & Sachio Ohkawa & Shunya Noda, 2026. "Integrating Predictive Models into Two-Sided Recommendations: A Matching-Theoretic Approach," Papers 2602.19689, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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