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Consumer inflation views: Micro-level inconsistencies and macro-level measures

Author

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  • Stanisławska, Ewa
  • Paloviita, Maritta
  • Łyziak, Tomasz

Abstract

We provide evidence that inconsistent micro-level survey responses regarding inflation expectations are common in the European Commission Consumer Survey, but they distort neither the aggregate measures of inflation expectations nor the results of the analysis of expectation formation on the macro-level.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2021. "Consumer inflation views: Micro-level inconsistencies and macro-level measures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:206:y:2021:i:c:s0165176521002810
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2023. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2292-2325.
    2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Weale, Martin, 2006. "Survey Expectations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 715-776, Elsevier.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Duca-Radu, Ioana & Kenny, Geoff & Reuter, Andreas, 2021. "Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound: Micro evidence from a large multi-country survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 120-134.
    6. Baker, Michael, 1992. "Digit preference in CPS unemployment data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 117-121, May.
    7. Easaw, Joshy & Golinelli, Roberto & Malgarini, Marco, 2013. "What determines households inflation expectations? Theory and evidence from a household survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-13.
    8. Rodolfo Arioli & Colm Bates & Heinz Dieden & Ioana Duca & Roberta Friz & Christian Gayer & Geoff Kenny & Aidan Meyler & Iskra Pavlova, 2016. "EU Consumers’ Quantitative Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: An Evaluation," European Economy - Discussion Papers 038, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Batchelor, R. A., 1986. "The psychophysics of inflation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 269-290, September.
    10. Meyler, Aidan & Reiche, Lovisa, 2021. "Making sense of consumers’ inflation perceptions and expectations – the role of (un)certainty," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    11. Jonung, Lars, 1986. "Uncertainty about inflationary perceptions and expectations," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 315-325, September.
    12. Francesco D'Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2019. "Cognitive Abilities and Inflation Expectations," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 562-566, May.
    13. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolas Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2022. "Unravelling the Narratives Behind Macroeconomic Forecasts," IHEID Working Papers 18-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer survey; Inflation expectations; Micro-data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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