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Was the mid-2000s drop in the British job change rate genuine or a survey design effect?

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  • Jenkins, Stephen P.

Abstract

The year-on-year job change rate fell sharply, from 18% in 2005 to around 13% in 2006, according to British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) estimates. This fall coincides with the introduction of dependent interviewing to the BHPS, intended to reduce measurement error and improve consistency. Estimates from models of job change misclassification (Hausman et al., 1998) show that reduced measurement error cannot account for the fall in the job change rate. This suggests that the fall was genuine.

Suggested Citation

  • Jenkins, Stephen P., 2020. "Was the mid-2000s drop in the British job change rate genuine or a survey design effect?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:194:y:2020:i:c:s016517652030241x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109383
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Henry Hyatt & James Spletzer, 2013. "The recent decline in employment dynamics," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Alan B. Krueger & Alexandre Mas & Xiaotong Niu, 2017. "The Evolution of Rotation Group Bias: Will the Real Unemployment Rate Please Stand Up?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 258-264, May.
    3. Adele Bergin, 2015. "Employer Changes and Wage Changes: Estimation with Measurement Error in a Binary Variable," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 29(2), pages 194-223, June.
    4. Jäckle, Annette & Noah Uhrig, S.C. & Laurie, Heather, 2007. "The introduction of dependent interviewing on the British Household Panel Survey," ISER Working Paper Series 2007-07, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Hausman, J. A. & Abrevaya, Jason & Scott-Morton, F. M., 1998. "Misclassification of the dependent variable in a discrete-response setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 239-269, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Job change; Misclassification error; Dependent interviewing; Feed forward;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access

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