IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v193y2020ics0165176520301798.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Lumpy investment and expected stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Im, Hyun Joong
  • Park, Heungju

Abstract

This study investigates the predictability of stock market returns using a novel corporate investment measure that captures the lumpiness of firm-level investment. We find that the proportion of firms with investment spikes (spike) is a strong predictor of excess stock returns. Specifically, an increase in spike significantly lowers future excess stock returns. The predictive ability of spike is consistently observed in both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. Furthermore, spike shows strong predictive ability at the business cycle frequency, suggesting that its predictive ability is driven by the time-varying risk premium associated with business cycles rather than temporary mispricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Im, Hyun Joong & Park, Heungju, 2020. "Lumpy investment and expected stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s0165176520301798
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109263
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176520301798
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109263?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    2. Joanne M. Doyle & Toni M. Whited, 2001. "Fixed Costs Of Adjustment, Coordination, And Industry Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 628-637, November.
    3. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2000. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2219-2257, October.
    4. Dixit, Avinash, 1995. "Irreversible investment with uncertainty and scale economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 327-350.
    5. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    6. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    7. Owen A. Lamont, 2000. "Investment Plans and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2719-2745, December.
    8. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    9. Mark E. Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1998. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 409-429, April.
    10. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    11. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 1-54.
    12. John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper & Laura Power, 1999. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 921-946, September.
    13. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    14. Salman Arif & Charles M. C. Lee, 2014. "Aggregate Investment and Investor Sentiment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(11), pages 3241-3279.
    15. Whited, Toni M., 2006. "External finance constraints and the intertemporal pattern of intermittent investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 467-502, September.
    16. Ilan Cooper, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk Premiums and the Output Gap," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2601-2633, July.
    17. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 1999. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 783-826, July.
    18. Michael Rothschild, 1971. "On the Cost of Adjustment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(4), pages 605-622.
    19. Giuseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1994. "Cross-Sectional Efficiency and Labour Hoarding in a Matching Model of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 435-456.
    20. Cochrane, John H, 1991. "Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 209-237, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gourio, Francois & Kashyap, Anil K, 2007. "Investment spikes: New facts and a general equilibrium exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 1-22, September.
    2. Chue, Timothy K. & Xu, Jin Karen, 2022. "Profitability, asset investment, and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Møller, Stig V. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2015. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 136-154.
    4. Li, Jun & Wang, Huijun & Yu, Jianfeng, 2018. "Aggregate Expected Investment Growth and Stock Market Returns," ADBI Working Papers 808, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Christian Bayer, 2001. "Aggregate investment dynamics when firms face fixed investment cost and capital market imperfections," Discussion Papers in Economics 01_13, University of Dortmund, Department of Economics.
    6. Li, Jun & Wang, Huijun & Yu, Jianfeng, 2021. "Aggregate expected investment growth and stock market returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 618-638.
    7. Atanasov, Victoria, 2018. "World output gap and global stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 181-197.
    8. Stig V. Møller & Jesper Rangvid, 2018. "Global Economic Growth and Expected Returns Around the World: The End-of-the-Year Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 573-591, February.
    9. Richard Disney & Helen Miller & Thomas Pope, 2018. "Firm-level investment spikes and aggregate investment over the Great Recession," IFS Working Papers W18/03, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    10. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Michaels, Ryan, 2019. "Fixed adjustment costs and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 128-147.
    11. Yiwen (Paul) Dou & David R. Gallagher & David Schneider & Terry S. Walter, 2012. "Out-of-sample stock return predictability in Australia," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 37(3), pages 461-479, December.
    12. Gebreeyesus, Mulu, 2009. "Inactions and Spikes of Investment in Ethiopian Manufacturing Firms: Empirical Evidence on Irreversibility and Non-convexities," MERIT Working Papers 2009-061, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    13. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1999. "Aggregate investment," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 813-862, Elsevier.
    14. Atanasov, Victoria, 2021. "Unemployment and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    15. Smith, Simon C., 2021. "International stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Hayashi Meets Kiyotaki and Moore: A Theory of Capital Adjustment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 207-225, April.
    17. Marcelo L. Veracierto, 2002. "Plant-Level Irreversible Investment and Equilibrium Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 181-197, March.
    18. Tomat, Gian Maria, 2008. "Modeling the Effects of Financial Constraints on Firm's Investment," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-26.
    19. Marcela Eslava & John Haltiwanger & Adriana Kugler & Maurice Kugler, 2010. "Factor Adjustments after Deregulation: Panel Evidence from Colombian Plants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 378-391, May.
    20. Pinar Geylani, 2015. "Lumpy investments and capital adjustment patterns in the food manufacturing industry," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(3), pages 501-517, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s0165176520301798. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.