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Spurious correlation under fractional integration in output series

  • Dalkir, Mehmet

This article identifies caveats of using the correlation coefficient between two fractionally integrated time series as a measure of association between them, and compares various procedures for removing the long-range dependence component in the output series of the G7.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 107 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 165-168

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:107:y:2010:i:2:p:165-168
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  1. Imbs, Jean, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  3. Katsumi Shimotsu, 2002. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractional Integration with Unknown Mean and Time Trend," Economics Discussion Papers 543, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  4. Chung, Ching-Fan, 2002. "Sample Means, Sample Autocovariances, And Linear Regression Of Stationary Multivariate Long Memory Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 51-78, February.
  5. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2005. "Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G-7 Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 721-740, November.
  6. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
  7. Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Prasad, Eswar, 2002. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 487, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Tsay, Wen-Jen & Chung, Ching-Fan, 2000. "The spurious regression of fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 155-182, May.
  9. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  10. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Terrones, Marco E., 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IZA Discussion Papers 702, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
  12. Michael D. Bordo & Thomas Helbling, 2003. "Have National Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," NBER Working Papers 10130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Wen-Jen Tsay, 2007. "Using Difference-Based Methods for Inference in Regression with Fractionally Integrated Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(6), pages 827-843, November.
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