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Financial CDS, stock market and interest rates: Which drives which?

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  • Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  • Sari, Ramazan

Abstract

The objective is to examine the short- and long-run dynamics of US financial CDS index spreads at the sector level and explore their relationships with the stock market and the short- and long-run government securities, paying particular attention to the subperiod that begins with the 2007 Great Recession. We use daily time series for the three US five-year CDS index spreads for banking, financial services and insurance sectors, the S&P 500 index, the short- and long-term Treasury securities rates. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach (ARDL), this study finds more long-run relationships between the five financial variables in Model II that includes the six-month T bill rate than Model I that includes the 10-year T bond rate. The long-run relationships have weakened in both models under the subperiod than the full period. Moreover, the short-run dynamics have changed under the subperiod but the changes are mixed. Implications are relevant for decision-makers who are interested in financial relationships at the sector level than at the firm level.

Suggested Citation

  • Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sari, Ramazan, 2011. "Financial CDS, stock market and interest rates: Which drives which?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 257-276.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:22:y:2011:i:3:p:257-276
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2011.04.001
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    2. Caporin, Massimiliano, 2013. "Equity and CDS sector indices: Dynamic models and risk hedging," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 261-275.
    3. Aloui, Chaker & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hamida, Hela ben, 2015. "Global factors driving structural changes in the co-movement between sharia stocks and sukuk in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 311-329.
    4. Tamakoshi, Go & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2016. "Time-varying co-movements and volatility spillovers among financial sector CDS indexes in the UK," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 288-296.
    5. Atil, Ahmed & Bradford, Marc & Elmarzougui, Abdelaziz & Lahiani, Amine, 2016. "Conditional dependence of US and EU sovereign CDS: A time-varying copula-based estimation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 42-53.
    6. Lahiani, Amine & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Linkages between financial sector CDS spreads and macroeconomic influence in a nonlinear setting," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 443-456.
    7. Liow, Kim Hiang, 2015. "Volatility spillover dynamics and relationship across G7 financial markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 328-365.
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    10. Bekhet, Hussain Ali & Matar, Ali, 2013. "Co-integration and causality analysis between stock market prices and their determinates in Jordan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 508-514.
    11. repec:eee:intfin:v:52:y:2018:i:c:p:114-133 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Tamakoshi, Go & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2014. "Spillovers among CDS indexes in the US financial sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 104-113.
    13. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Ferrer, Roman & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: U.S. industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 211-230.
    14. Ben Salha, Ousama & Jaidi, Zied, 2013. "Some new evidence on the determinants of money demand in developing countries – A case study of Tunisia," MPRA Paper 51788, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Benbouzid, Nadia & Mallick, Sushanta, 2013. "Determinants of bank credit default swap spreads: The role of the housing sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 243-259.
    16. Tamakoshi, Go & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2014. "The conditional dependence structure of insurance sector credit default swap indices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 122-132.
    17. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Huang, Wei-Ling & Yin, Chun-Hao, 2013. "The dynamic interactions among the stock, bond and insurance markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 28-52.

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