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Financial CDS, stock market and interest rates: Which drives which?

  • Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  • Sari, Ramazan

The objective is to examine the short- and long-run dynamics of US financial CDS index spreads at the sector level and explore their relationships with the stock market and the short- and long-run government securities, paying particular attention to the subperiod that begins with the 2007 Great Recession. We use daily time series for the three US five-year CDS index spreads for banking, financial services and insurance sectors, the S&P 500 index, the short- and long-term Treasury securities rates. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach (ARDL), this study finds more long-run relationships between the five financial variables in Model II that includes the six-month T bill rate than Model I that includes the 10-year T bond rate. The long-run relationships have weakened in both models under the subperiod than the full period. Moreover, the short-run dynamics have changed under the subperiod but the changes are mixed. Implications are relevant for decision-makers who are interested in financial relationships at the sector level than at the firm level.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal The North American Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 22 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 257-276

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:22:y:2011:i:3:p:257-276
DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2011.04.001
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163

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