Interval-valued time series forecasting using a novel hybrid HoltI and MSVR model
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.08.019
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008.
"Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R,"
Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
- Rob J. Hyndman & Yeasmin Khandakar, 2007. "Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Javier Arroyo & Rosa Espínola & Carlos Maté, 2011. "Different Approaches to Forecast Interval Time Series: A Comparison in Finance," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 169-191, February.
- Zhu, Bangzhu & Wei, Yiming, 2013. "Carbon price forecasting with a novel hybrid ARIMA and least squares support vector machines methodology," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 517-524.
- Xiong, Tao & Bao, Yukun & Hu, Zhongyi, 2013. "Beyond one-step-ahead forecasting: Evaluation of alternative multi-step-ahead forecasting models for crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 405-415.
- Yin-Wong Cheung, 2007.
"An empirical model of daily highs and lows,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 1-20.
- Yin-Wong Cheung, 2006. "An Empirical Model of Daily Highs and Lows," CESifo Working Paper Series 1695, CESifo.
- Yin-wong Cheung, 2006. "An Empirical Model of Daily Highs and Lows," Working Papers 072006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Pai, Ping-Feng & Lin, Chih-Sheng, 2005. "A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 497-505, December.
- Angela He & Alan Wan, 2009. "Predicting daily highs and lows of exchange rates: a cointegration analysis," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(11), pages 1191-1204.
- Feng, Lihua & Zhang, Jianzhen, 2014. "Application of artificial neural networks in tendency forecasting of economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 76-80.
- Tao Xiong & Yukun Bao & Zhongyi Hu, 2014. "Multiple-output support vector regression with a firefly algorithm for interval-valued stock price index forecasting," Papers 1401.1916, arXiv.org.
- Fernandes, Marcelo & de Sa Mota, Bernardo & Rocha, Guilherme, 2005. "A multivariate conditional autoregressive range model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 435-440, March.
- Maia, André Luis Santiago & de Carvalho, Francisco de A.T., 2011. "Holt's exponential smoothing and neural network models for forecasting interval-valued time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 740-759, July.
- Cheung, Yan-Leung & Cheung, Yin-Wong & He, Angela W.W. & Wan, Alan T.K., 2010. "A trading strategy based on Callable Bull/Bear Contracts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 186-198, April.
- He, Angela W.W. & Kwok, Jerry T.K. & Wan, Alan T.K., 2010. "An empirical model of daily highs and lows of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1499-1506, November.
- Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Range‐Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1047-1091, June.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001.
"Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 251, CESifo.
- Liu, Yong-Jun & Zhang, Wei-Guo & Zhang, Pu, 2013. "A multi-period portfolio selection optimization model by using interval analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 113-119.
- Chou, Ray Yeutien, 2005. "Forecasting Financial Volatilities with Extreme Values: The Conditional Autoregressive Range (CARR) Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 561-582, June.
- Maia, André Luis Santiago & de Carvalho, Francisco de A.T., 2011. "Holt’s exponential smoothing and neural network models for forecasting interval-valued time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 740-759.
- Lima Neto, Eufrásio de A. & de Carvalho, Francisco de A.T., 2010. "Constrained linear regression models for symbolic interval-valued variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 333-347, February.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wong, Clement Yuk-Pang, 2000. "A survey of market practitioners' views on exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 401-419, August.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Gao, Feng & Shao, Xueyan, 2022. "A novel interval decomposition ensemble model for interval carbon price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
- Rui Luo & Jinpei Liu & Piao Wang & Zhifu Tao & Huayou Chen, 2024. "A multisource data‐driven combined forecasting model based on internet search keyword screening method for interval soybean futures price," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 366-390, March.
- Bruck, Axel & Díaz Ruano, Santiago & Auer, Hans, 2022. "One piece of the puzzle towards 100 Positive Energy Districts (PEDs) across Europe by 2025: An open-source approach to unveil favourable locations of PV-based PEDs from a techno-economic perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
- Zhu, Jiaming & Wu, Peng & Chen, Huayou & Liu, Jinpei & Zhou, Ligang, 2019. "Carbon price forecasting with variational mode decomposition and optimal combined model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 519(C), pages 140-158.
- Sun, Shaolong & Wang, Shouyang & Wei, Yunjie, 2019. "A new multiscale decomposition ensemble approach for forecasting exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 49-58.
- Sun, Yuying & Zhang, Xinyu & Wan, Alan T.K. & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "Model averaging for interval-valued data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(2), pages 772-784.
- Sun, Shaolong & Sun, Yuying & Wang, Shouyang & Wei, Yunjie, 2018. "Interval decomposition ensemble approach for crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 274-287.
- Piao Wang & Shahid Hussain Gurmani & Zhifu Tao & Jinpei Liu & Huayou Chen, 2024. "Interval time series forecasting: A systematic literature review," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 249-285, March.
- Lei, Heng & Xue, Minggao & Liu, Huiling, 2022. "Probability distribution forecasting of carbon allowance prices: A hybrid model considering multiple influencing factors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
- Gloria Gonzalez‐Rivera & Yun Luo & Esther Ruiz, 2020.
"Prediction regions for interval‐valued time series,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 373-390, June.
- Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Yun Luo & Esther Ruiz, 2018. "Prediction Regions for Interval-valued Time Series," Working Papers 201817, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Yun Luo & Esther Ruiz, 2019. "Prediction Regions for Interval-valued Time Series," Working Papers 201921, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- González-Rivera, Gloria & Luo, Yun, 2019. "Prediction regions for interval-valued time series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 29054, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EstadÃstica.
- OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Xuan Vinh Vo & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Adeolu O. Adewuyi, 2022.
"Modelling cryptocurrency high–low prices using fractional cointegrating VAR,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 489-505, January.
- Yaya, OaOluwa S & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E & Adewuyi, Adeolu O, 2020. "Modelling Cryptocurrency High-Low Prices using Fractional Cointegrating VAR," MPRA Paper 102190, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Aug 2020.
- Wenyang Huang & Huiwen Wang & Shanshan Wang, 2021. "Dimension reduction of open-high-low-close data in candlestick chart based on pseudo-PCA," Papers 2103.16908, arXiv.org.
- Guo, Wei & Liu, Qingfu & Luo, Zhidan & Tse, Yiuman, 2022. "Forecasts for international financial series with VMD algorithms," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
- Leandro Maciel, 2020. "Technical analysis based on high and low stock prices forecasts: evidence for Brazil using a fractionally cointegrated VAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1513-1540, April.
- González-Rivera, Gloria & Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2023. "Modelling intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 37968, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EstadÃstica.
- Wang, Piao & Tao, Zhifu & Liu, Jinpei & Chen, Huayou, 2023. "Improving the forecasting accuracy of interval-valued carbon price from a novel multi-scale framework with outliers detection: An improved interval-valued time series analysis mode," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
- Zhu, Mengrui & Xu, Hua & Wang, Minggang & Tian, Lixin, 2024. "Carbon price interval prediction method based on probability density recurrence network and interval multi-layer perceptron," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 636(C).
- Leandro Maciel & Rosangela Ballini, 2021. "Functional Fuzzy Rule-Based Modeling for Interval-Valued Data: An Empirical Application for Exchange Rates Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 743-771, February.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Henning Fischer & Ángela Blanco‐FERNÁndez & Peter Winker, 2016. "Predicting Stock Return Volatility: Can We Benefit from Regression Models for Return Intervals?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 113-146, March.
- Leandro Maciel & Rosangela Ballini, 2021. "Functional Fuzzy Rule-Based Modeling for Interval-Valued Data: An Empirical Application for Exchange Rates Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 743-771, February.
- Yan-Leung Cheung & Yin-Wong Cheung & Alan T. K. Wan, 2009.
"A high-low model of daily stock price ranges,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 103-119.
- Yan-Leung Cheung & Yin-Wong Cheung & Alan T.K. Wan, 2008. "A High-Low Model of Daily Stock Price Ranges," CESifo Working Paper Series 2387, CESifo.
- Yan-Leung Cheung & Yin-Wong Cheung & Alan T. K. Wan, 2009. "A High-Low Model of Daily Stock Price Ranges," Working Papers 032009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Nazarii Salish, 2011. "Modeling and Forecasting Interval Time Series with Threshold Models: An Application to S&P500 Index Returns," Working Papers w201128, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Hu, Zhongyi & Bao, Yukun & Chiong, Raymond & Xiong, Tao, 2015. "Mid-term interval load forecasting using multi-output support vector regression with a memetic algorithm for feature selection," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 419-431.
- Chang, Meng-Shiuh & Ju, Peijie & Liu, Yilei & Hsueh, Shao-Chieh, 2022. "Determining hedges and safe havens for stocks using interval analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
- Leandro Maciel, 2020. "Technical analysis based on high and low stock prices forecasts: evidence for Brazil using a fractionally cointegrated VAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1513-1540, April.
- Alia Afzal & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2021. "Modeling fractional cointegration between high and low stock prices in Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 661-682, February.
- Zhu, Mengrui & Xu, Hua & Wang, Minggang & Tian, Lixin, 2024. "Carbon price interval prediction method based on probability density recurrence network and interval multi-layer perceptron," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 636(C).
- Paulo Rodrigues & Nazarii Salish, 2015. "Modeling and forecasting interval time series with threshold models," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 9(1), pages 41-57, March.
- Tao Xiong & Yukun Bao & Zhongyi Hu, 2014. "Multiple-output support vector regression with a firefly algorithm for interval-valued stock price index forecasting," Papers 1401.1916, arXiv.org.
- Fiszeder, Piotr & Perczak, Grzegorz, 2016. "Low and high prices can improve volatility forecasts during periods of turmoil," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 398-410.
- Yin-Wong Cheung, 2007.
"An empirical model of daily highs and lows,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 1-20.
- Yin-wong Cheung, 2006. "An Empirical Model of Daily Highs and Lows," Working Papers 072006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Yin-Wong Cheung, 2006. "An Empirical Model of Daily Highs and Lows," CESifo Working Paper Series 1695, CESifo.
- Hao, Peng & Guo, Junpeng, 2017. "Constrained center and range joint model for interval-valued symbolic data regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 106-138.
- Sun, Yuying & Zhang, Xinyu & Wan, Alan T.K. & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "Model averaging for interval-valued data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(2), pages 772-784.
- Sun, Shaolong & Sun, Yuying & Wang, Shouyang & Wei, Yunjie, 2018. "Interval decomposition ensemble approach for crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 274-287.
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- González-Rivera, Gloria & Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2023. "Modelling intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 37968, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EstadÃstica.
- Angela He & Alan Wan, 2009. "Predicting daily highs and lows of exchange rates: a cointegration analysis," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(11), pages 1191-1204.
- Caporin, Massimiliano & Ranaldo, Angelo & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2013.
"On the predictability of stock prices: A case for high and low prices,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5132-5146.
- Massimiliano Caporin & Angelo Ranaldo & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2011. "On the Predictability of Stock Prices: A Case for High and Low Prices," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0136, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
- Massimiliano Caporin & Angelo Ranaldo, 2011. "On the Predictability of Stock Prices: a Case for High and Low Prices," Working Papers 2011-11, Swiss National Bank.
- Caporin, Massimiliano & Ranaldo, Angelo & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2012. "On the Predictability of Stock Prices: a Case for High and Low Prices," Working Papers on Finance 1213, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
More about this item
Keywords
Interval-valued data; Interval forecasting; Interval Holt's exponential smoothing method (HoltI); Multi-output support vector regression (MSVR); Hybrid method;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:60:y:2017:i:c:p:11-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.