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Holt’s exponential smoothing and neural network models for forecasting interval-valued time series

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  • Maia, André Luis Santiago
  • de Carvalho, Francisco de A.T.

Abstract

Interval-valued time series are interval-valued data that are collected in a chronological sequence over time. This paper introduces three approaches to forecasting interval-valued time series. The first two approaches are based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks and Holt’s exponential smoothing methods, respectively. In Holt’s method for interval-valued time series, the smoothing parameters are estimated by using techniques for non-linear optimization problems with bound constraints. The third approach is based on a hybrid methodology that combines the MLP and Holt models. The practicality of the methods is demonstrated through simulation studies and applications using real interval-valued stock market time series.

Suggested Citation

  • Maia, André Luis Santiago & de Carvalho, Francisco de A.T., 2011. "Holt’s exponential smoothing and neural network models for forecasting interval-valued time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 740-759.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:3:p:740-759
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.02.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
    2. Zou, Hui & Yang, Yuhong, 2004. "Combining time series models for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 69-84.
    3. Williams, Dan W. & Miller, Don, 1999. "Level-adjusted exponential smoothing for modeling planned discontinuities1," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 273-289, July.
    4. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Author's retrospective on 'Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages'," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 11-13.
    5. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
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    7. Fang, Yue, 2003. "Forecasting combination and encompassing tests," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 87-94.
    8. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-10.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/12414 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Groenen, P.J.F. & Winsberg, S. & Rodriguez, O. & Diday, E., 2006. "I-Scal: Multidimensional scaling of interval dissimilarities," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 360-378, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Nazarii Salish, 2011. "Modeling and Forecasting Interval Time Series with Threshold Models: An Application to S&P500 Index Returns," Working Papers w201128, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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