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Random coefficients models of arms imports

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  • Smith, Ron P.
  • Tasiran, Ali

Abstract

This paper uses a large panel of data with up to 19 time-series observations for almost 150 countries to estimate models of arms imports. Qualitative evidence suggests a non-linear relationship. As income and military expenditure grow, the propensity to import first rises and then falls as a domestic arms industry develops. We face the difficulty that there is virtually no data on domestic arms procurement or production capability. We respond to this difficulty by adopting a random coefficient approach in order to identify any systematic influences on import propensity, through the impact of military expenditure, size of the armed forces or income on unobserved domestic production capability. While a clear non-linear pattern is apparent in the cross-section relationship, once one allows for parameter heterogeneity such a pattern is not apparent in the time-series.

Suggested Citation

  • Smith, Ron P. & Tasiran, Ali, 2010. "Random coefficients models of arms imports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1522-1528, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:6:p:1522-1528
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Hall, Stephen G. & Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "Assessing the causal relationship between euro-area money and prices in a time-varying environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 760-766, July.
    5. Kajal Lahiri, 2005. "Analysis of Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(4), pages 1093-1095.
    6. Brauer, Jurgen, 2007. "Arms Industries, Arms Trade, and Developing Countries," Handbook of Defense Economics, Elsevier.
    7. Christian Dustmann & MarĂ­a Engracia Rochina-Barrachina, 2007. "Selection correction in panel data models: An application to the estimation of females' wage equations," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(2), pages 263-293, July.
    8. Haque, N. U. & Pesaran, M. H. & Sharma, Sunil, 1999. "Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-country Savings Regressions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9904, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    10. Paul Levine & Fotis Mouzakis & Ron Smith, 1998. "Prices and quantities in the arms trade," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 223-236.
    11. Garcia-Alonso, Maria D.C. & Levine, Paul, 2007. "Arms Trade and Arms Races: A Strategic Analysis," Handbook of Defense Economics, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marrouch, Walid & Turk-Ariss, Rima, 2012. "Bank pricing under oligopsony-oligopoly : Evidence from 103 developing countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Bove Vincenzo & Gleditsch Kristian Skrede, 2011. "2010 Lewis Fry Richardson Lifetime Achievement Award: Ron P. Smith and the Economics of War and Peace," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Marrouch, Walid & Turk-Ariss, Rima, 2014. "Joint market power in banking: Evidence from developing countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 253-267.

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