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Greening through credit: Green credit and polluting firm dynamics in China

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  • Wang, Minzhi
  • Guo, Xinxin
  • Gu, Yu

Abstract

Exploiting China's green credit policy (GCP) as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper examines the impact of green credit on polluting firm dynamics using a difference-in-differences method. We show that the GCP reduces the number of firm entries by 10.1 % and increases the number of firm exits by 9.1 % in polluting industries. Our mechanism analyses further corroborate that the GCP significantly intensifies financing constraints for polluting firms, resulting in increased entry barriers and operational costs. Heterogeneous tests show that the effect is more pronounced in cities with a higher level of marketization or stricter environmental regulation and industries with higher market competition or larger irreversible investments. Additionally, we find that the GCP leads to better-quality entrants with larger scale, higher total factor productivity, and lower pollution discharge intensity. These results imply that the GCP promotes efficient resource allocation, manifested in the transfer of production factors to more productive and cleaner firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Minzhi & Guo, Xinxin & Gu, Yu, 2026. "Greening through credit: Green credit and polluting firm dynamics in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:156:y:2026:i:c:s0264999326000052
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107476
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    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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