IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v132y2024ics0264999324000257.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the macroeconomic impact of NGEU funds and its propagation through the production network

Author

Listed:
  • Fernández-Cerezo, Alejandro
  • Moral-Benito, Enrique
  • Quintana, Javier

Abstract

We quantify the sectoral and aggregate effects of the Next Generation European Union program in the Spanish economy. We outline a dynamic model with production and investment networks that allows for different linkages among sectors and countries. Our model can accommodate different stimulus packages, such as public infrastructure investment, current public expenditure, or capital transfers to firms. Considering the amplification effects through the production network, the average impact on gross domestic product over a five-year horizon is estimated to be 1.75% per year, about 0.6% larger than the direct impact estimated without network interactions. Our model also identifies potential threats, such as the emergence of bottlenecks, inflationary pressures from public spending, or shortages of high-skilled workers in certain sectors, that could significantly reduce the program’s positive impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernández-Cerezo, Alejandro & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Quintana, Javier, 2024. "On the macroeconomic impact of NGEU funds and its propagation through the production network," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:132:y:2024:i:c:s0264999324000257
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106669
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999324000257
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106669?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian vom Lehn & Thomas Winberry, 2022. "The Investment Network, Sectoral Comovement, and the Changing U.S. Business Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 387-433.
    2. Silvia Albrizio & José Federico Geli, 2021. "An empirical analysis of the determinants that can boost next generation EU´s effectiveness," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 4/2021.
    3. Pilar Cuadrado & Mario Izquierdo & José Manuel Montero & Enrique Moral-Benito & Javier Quintana, 2022. "The potential growth of the spanish economy after the pandemic," Occasional Papers 2208, Banco de España.
    4. Aguilar, Pablo & González, Beatriz & Hurtado, Samuel, 2023. "Green policies and transition risk propagation in production networks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Andrew T. Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2022. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(12), pages 3286-3333.
    6. Vasco M. Carvalho & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2019. "Production Networks: A Primer," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 635-663, August.
    7. Mary O'Mahony & Marcel P. Timmer, 2009. "Output, Input and Productivity Measures at the Industry Level: The EU KLEMS Database," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages 374-403, June.
    8. Jean-Noël Barrot & Basile Grassi & Julien Sauvagnat, 2021. "Sectoral Effects of Social Distancing," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 277-281, May.
    9. Javier Quintana, 2022. "Economic consequences of a hypothetical suspension of Russia-EU trade," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2/2022.
    10. Andrew Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," Working Paper 19-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    11. César Calderón & Enrique Moral‐Benito & Luis Servén, 2015. "Is infrastructure capital productive? A dynamic heterogeneous approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 177-198, March.
    12. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1155-1203, July.
    13. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2011. "Are Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities Consistent? A Review of Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 471-475, May.
    14. Mario Izquierdo & Enrique Moral-Benito & Elvira Prades & Javier Quintana, 2022. "The propagation of worldwide sector-specific shocks," Working Papers 2213, Banco de España.
    15. Robert Dekle & Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2008. "Global Rebalancing with Gravity: Measuring the Burden of Adjustment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(3), pages 511-540, July.
    16. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "Networks, Barriers, and Trade," NBER Working Papers 26108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2024. "Asset prices in a production network," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. Alejandro Fernández-Cerezo & Enrique Moral-Benito & Javier Quintana, 2023. "A production network model for the Spanish economy with an application to the impact of NGEU funds," Working Papers 2305, Banco de España.
    3. Paul Gaggl & Aspen Gorry & Christian vom Lehn, 2023. "Structural Change in Production Networks and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 10460, CESifo.
    4. Falck, Elisabeth & Röhe, Oke & Strobel, Johannes, 2024. "Digital transformation and its impact on labour productivity: A multi-sector perspective," Discussion Papers 28/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. De Graeve, Ferre & Schneider, Jan David, 2023. "Identifying sectoral shocks and their role in business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 124-141.
    6. Pellet, Thomas & Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza, 2023. "Rigid production networks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 86-102.
    7. Ali Sen, 2024. "Structural Change at a Disaggregated Level: Sectoral Heterogeneity Matters," Working Papers 048, The Productivity Institute.
    8. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2024. "Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(2), pages 391-433.
    10. Francisco J. Buera & Nicholas Trachter, 2024. "Sectoral Development Multipliers," NBER Working Papers 32230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Christian vom Lehn & Thomas Winberry, 2022. "The Investment Network, Sectoral Comovement, and the Changing U.S. Business Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 387-433.
    12. Eppinger, Peter S. & Felbermayr, Gabriel & Krebs, Oliver & Kukharskyy, Bohdan, 2020. "Covid-19 shocking global value chains," Kiel Working Papers 2167, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Robert Lehmann & Lara Zarges, 2024. "What Drives German Trend Output Growth? A Sectoral View," CESifo Working Paper Series 11089, CESifo.
    14. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2021. "Decoupling Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 9079, CESifo.
    15. Baruník, Jozef & Bevilacqua, Mattia & Faff, Robert, 2024. "Dynamic industry uncertainty networks and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    16. Qianxue Zhang, 2022. "The Hubei lockdown and its global impacts via supply chains," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1087-1109, September.
    17. Molnárová, Zuzana & Reiter, Michael, 2022. "Technology, demand, and productivity: What an industry model tells us about business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. Rodrigo Adão & Costas Arkolakis & Sharat Ganapati, 2020. "Aggregate Implications of Firm Heterogeneity: A Nonparametric Analysis of Monopolistic Competition Trade Models," Working Papers 2020-161, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    19. Ernest Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Dynamical Structure and Spectral Properties of Input-Output Networks," Working Papers 2021-13, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    20. Andersen, Torben M. & Sørensen, Allan, 2023. "The interdependencies between the private and public sectors in open economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Input–Output Models; Industrial Policy; Public Investment; Next Generation European Union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:132:y:2024:i:c:s0264999324000257. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.