IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v34y2010i12p2533-2546.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Harvesting and recovery decisions under uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Shackleton, Mark B.
  • Sødal, Sigbjørn

Abstract

A stochastic forest rotation model in the Faustmann tradition is presented and exemplified. The model combines harvesting decisions with the potential to recover or clean up to restore the land after very unfavorable evolutions of the stochastic growth process. Uncertainty is shown to have a generally ambiguous effect on the optimal choice of investment strategy. It is also shown how such models can be related to theory of optimal inventory control.

Suggested Citation

  • Shackleton, Mark B. & Sødal, Sigbjørn, 2010. "Harvesting and recovery decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2533-2546, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:12:p:2533-2546
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165-1889(10)00163-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Spence, 1976. "Product Selection, Fixed Costs, and Monopolistic Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 43(2), pages 217-235.
    2. Alvarez, Luis H R & Koskela, Erkki, 2003. "On Forest Rotation under Interest Rate Variability," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 10(4), pages 489-503, August.
    3. Shackleton, Mark B. & Sodal, Sigbjorn, 2005. "Smooth pasting as rate of return equalization," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 200-206, November.
    4. Willassen, Yngve, 1998. "The stochastic rotation problem: A generalization of Faustmann's formula to stochastic forest growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 573-596, April.
    5. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-622, June.
    6. Newman, D.H., 2002. "Forestry's golden rule and the development of the optimal forest rotation literature," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 5-27.
    7. Saphores, Jean-Daniel, 2003. "Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 509-529, December.
    8. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    9. Margaret Insley & Kimberly Rollins, 2005. "On Solving the Multirotational Timber Harvesting Problem with Stochastic Prices: A Linear Complementarity Formulation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(3), pages 735-755.
    10. Luis H. R. Alvarez, 2001. "Reward functionals, salvage values, and optimal stopping," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 54(2), pages 315-337, December.
    11. Dixit, Avinash & Pindyck, Robert S & Sodal, Sigbjorn, 1999. "A Markup Interpretation of Optimal Investment Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 179-189, April.
    12. Chang, Fwu-Ranq, 2005. "On the elasticities of harvesting rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 469-485, March.
    13. Sodal, Sigbjorn, 2006. "Entry and exit decisions based on a discount factor approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 1963-1986, November.
    14. George M. Constantinides & Scott F. Richard, 1978. "Existence of Optimal Simple Policies for Discounted-Cost Inventory and Cash Management in Continuous Time," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 26(4), pages 620-636, August.
    15. Luis Alvarez & Jukka Virtanen, 2006. "A class of solvable stochastic dividend optimization problems: on the general impact of flexibility on valuation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(2), pages 373-398, June.
    16. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    17. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
    18. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    19. Dixit, Avinash, 1991. "A simplified treatment of the theory of optimal regulation of Brownian motion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 657-673, October.
    20. Dayanik, Savas & Karatzas, Ioannis, 2003. "On the optimal stopping problem for one-dimensional diffusions," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 173-212, October.
    21. Lancaster, Kelvin, 1975. "Socially Optimal Product Differentiation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 567-585, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alvarez, Luis H.R., 2011. "Optimal capital accumulation under price uncertainty and costly reversibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1769-1788, October.
    2. Christensen, Sören & Sohr, Tobias, 2020. "A solution technique for Lévy driven long term average impulse control problems," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(12), pages 7303-7337.
    3. Sims, Charles & Finnoff, David, 2012. "The role of spatial scale in the timing of uncertain environmental policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 369-382.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2007. "Taxation and rotation age under stochastic forest stand value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 113-127, July.
    2. Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2006. "Does risk aversion accelerate optimal forest rotation under uncertainty?," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 171-184, December.
    3. Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2007. "Optimal harvesting under resource stock and price uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2461-2485, July.
    4. Saphores, Jean-Daniel M. & Shogren, Jason F., 2005. "Managing exotic pests under uncertainty: optimal control actions and bioeconomic investigations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 327-339, February.
    5. Tahvonen, Olli & Suominen, Antti & Malo, Pekka & Viitasaari, Lauri & Parkatti, Vesa-Pekka, 2022. "Optimizing high-dimensional stochastic forestry via reinforcement learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. Andrianos Tsekrekos & George Kanoutos, 2013. "Real Options Premia Implied from Recent Transactions in the Greek Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 152-168, July.
    7. Vadim Arkin & Alexander Slastnikov, 2015. "Real Options and Threshold Strategies," Papers 1511.00468, arXiv.org.
    8. Creamer, Selmin F. & Genz, Alan & Blatner, Keith A., 2012. "The Effect of Fire Risk on the Critical Harvesting Times for Pacific Northwest Douglas-Fir When Carbon Price Is Stochastic," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Sødal, Sigbjørn, 2001. "Entry, Exit And Scrapping Decisions With Investment Lags: A Series Of Investment Models Based On A New Approach," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt7wg8z42b, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    10. Chladna, Zuzana, 2007. "Determination of optimal rotation period under stochastic wood and carbon prices," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(8), pages 1031-1045, May.
    11. Saphores, Jean-Daniel M. & Boarnet, Marlon G., 2006. "Uncertainty and the timing of an urban congestion relief investment.: The no-land case," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 189-208, March.
    12. Sims, Charles & Finnoff, David, 2012. "The role of spatial scale in the timing of uncertain environmental policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 369-382.
    13. Sodal, Sigbjorn, 2006. "Entry and exit decisions based on a discount factor approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 1963-1986, November.
    14. Jukka Lempa, 2020. "Some results on optimal stopping under phase-type distributed implementation delay," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 91(3), pages 559-583, June.
    15. Bettendorf, Leon J.H. & Heijdra, Ben J., 1999. "Intergenerational and international welfare leakages of a tariff in a small open economy," CCSO Working Papers 199910, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    16. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
    17. Driver, Ciaran & Temple, Paul & Urga, Giovanni, 2008. "Real options -- delay vs. pre-emption: Do industrial characteristics matter?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 532-545, March.
    18. Marco Antonio Guimaraes Dias & Jose Paulo Teixeira, 2010. "Continuous-Time Option Games: Review of Models and Extensions," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 14(3-4), pages 219-254, September.
    19. Rena Sivitanidou, 1999. "Does the Theory of Irreversible Investments Help Explain Movements in Office-Commerical Construction?," Working Paper 8659, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    20. Fredrik Armerin & Han-Suck Song, 2021. "A framework for modelling cash flow lags," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-13, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:12:p:2533-2546. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.