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Timing matters: The (very) long-run impacts of cash grants during a crisis

Author

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  • Fiala, Nathan
  • Rose, Julian
  • Aryemo, Filder
  • Ankel-Peters, Jörg

Abstract

We investigate the long-run impacts of a one-time randomized entrepreneurial cash grant in Uganda during COVID-19 lockdowns, twelve years after the intervention. Previous research documented considerable positive effects after four years, which vanished for income after nine years, while some structural changes persisted. For the 12-year follow-up, we find positive effects on employment and income, but for men only, and no effects on food security. These gender-specific effects might not be the last word on the program's long-term impact. Rather, our paper emphasizes that the timing of follow-up studies matters, particularly in the presence of shocks such as the lockdowns.

Suggested Citation

  • Fiala, Nathan & Rose, Julian & Aryemo, Filder & Ankel-Peters, Jörg, 2025. "Timing matters: The (very) long-run impacts of cash grants during a crisis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:175:y:2025:i:c:s0304387824001962
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103447
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash transfers; Long-run impacts; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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