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Long-Run Effects of Aid: Forecasts and Evidence from Sierra Leone

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  • Casey, Katherine
  • Glennerster, Rachel
  • Miguel, Edward
  • Voors, Maarten

Abstract

We evaluate the long-run effects of a decentralised approach to economic development called community-driven development—a prominent strategy for delivering foreign aid—by revisiting a randomised community-driven development program in Sierra Leone 11 years after launch. We estimate large persistent gains in local public goods and market activity, and modest positive effects on institutions. There is suggestive evidence that community-driven development may have slightly improved the communities’ response to the 2014 Ebola epidemic. We compare estimates to the forecasts of experts from Sierra Leone and abroad, working in policy and academia, and find that local policymakers are overly optimistic about the effectiveness of community-driven development.

Suggested Citation

  • Casey, Katherine & Glennerster, Rachel & Miguel, Edward & Voors, Maarten, 2023. "Long-Run Effects of Aid: Forecasts and Evidence from Sierra Leone," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2qk20435, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt2qk20435
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yoav Benjamini & Abba M. Krieger & Daniel Yekutieli, 2006. "Adaptive linear step-up procedures that control the false discovery rate," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 93(3), pages 491-507, September.
    2. Bouguen, Adrien & Huang, Yue & Kremer, Michael & Miguel, Edward, 2018. "Using Rcts to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development Economics," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4sk6c4f7, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    3. Katherine Casey & Rachel Glennerster & Edward Miguel, 2012. "Reshaping Institutions: Evidence on Aid Impacts Using a Preanalysis Plan," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(4), pages 1755-1812.
    4. Casey, Katherine, 2018. "Radical Decentralization: Does Community Driven Development Work?," Research Papers 3629, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
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    1. Di Falco, Salvatore & Han, Kyungbo, 2025. "Mitigating the health impact of a famine: Evidence from the 1985 Ethiopian emergency food aid," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    2. Krishna, Anirudh & Kambewa, Daimon & Tchuwa, Frank & Kasonga, Frank & Higdon, Patrick, 2025. "What do communities feel about community-driven development? Learning from investigations in rural Malawi," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    3. repec:osf:osfxxx:rdjn9_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Patrick John Barron & Patricia Fernandes & Stephen Joseph Winkler & Michael Woolcock, 2024. "A Learning Agenda for Community-Driven Development : Responding to Complex Contextual, Evaluation, and Inference Challenges," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10883, The World Bank.
    5. Fiala, Nathan & Rose, Julian & Aryemo, Filder & Ankel-Peters, Jörg, 2025. "Timing matters: The (very) long-run impacts of cash grants during a crisis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

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