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Railway and trade in modern China: Evidence from the 1930s

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  • Guo, Yibei
  • Dong, Baomin

Abstract

There are controversies on the trade promoting effect of the railroad in modern times in the existing literature. We estimate the impact of the railway on domestic trade through forward linkages using an Eaton-Kortum model with county-commodity level data in Shandong and Hunan provinces in 1933. We show that the railway significantly decreased the trade cost and improved bilateral trade in Hunan and Shandong provinces. In particular, for every 10% decrease in geographical distance, the value of bilateral trade increased by 8.98%. In addition, our results on the existence of provincial border effect in Hunan and the disappearance of it in Shandong, imply that the emergence of railway contributed to the removal of provincial border effect. Furthermore, we find that counties with railway connections had higher per capita output, especially for those with a larger manufacturing sector. Our results echo those found in Andrabi and Kuehlwein (2010) and Donaldson (2018) for British India and Pérez-Cervantes (2014) for the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Yibei & Dong, Baomin, 2021. "Railway and trade in modern China: Evidence from the 1930s," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:69:y:2021:i:c:s1043951x21000791
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101661
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • N75 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Asia including Middle East
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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