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Scenario-based strategy maps

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  • Buytendijk, Frank
  • Hatch, Toby
  • Micheli, Pietro

Abstract

Strategy maps are designed to help execute strategy and bring predictive qualities to key performance indicators by linking them according to perceived cause-and-effect relationships. However, in our experience strategy maps are often extrapolations of past performance and are seldom sufficiently linked to possible future states. In this article, we argue that scenario analysis could play an important role in the design of strategy maps, as it is an effective method to look at the future. Through the development of scenarios, organizations can think creatively about possible discontinuous future states and can prepare themselves for multiple plausible futures, not only the one they expect to happen. Therefore, scenario-based strategy maps could enable organizations to face strategic uncertainty in a more effective way and make them more sustainable in the longer term. This article highlights the strengths and weaknesses of strategy maps and scenario analysis, and outlines a method to develop scenario-based strategy maps both in theory and by presenting a significant example.

Suggested Citation

  • Buytendijk, Frank & Hatch, Toby & Micheli, Pietro, 2010. "Scenario-based strategy maps," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 335-347, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:bushor:v:53:y::i:4:p:335-347
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Norreklit, Hanne, 2003. "The Balanced Scorecard: what is the score? A rhetorical analysis of the Balanced Scorecard," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 591-619, August.
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    1. Filippo Zanin & Maria Lusiani & Carlo Bagnoli, 2020. "The swinging role of visualization in strategic planning," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 24(4), pages 1019-1054, December.
    2. Glykas, Michael, 2012. "Performance measurement scenarios with fuzzy cognitive strategic maps," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 182-195.
    3. Alessandro Fergnani & John A. Sweeney, 2021. "Identity Wind Tunneling: A method for discovering an organization’s strategic identity using scenarios," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    4. Geoffrey Bartlett & Eric Johnson & Philip Reckers, 2014. "Accountability and Role Effects in Balanced Scorecard Performance Evaluations When Strategy Timeline Is Specified," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 143-165, May.
    5. Wright, George & Cairns, George & O'Brien, Frances A. & Goodwin, Paul, 2019. "Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 3-19.
    6. Kosheek Sewchurran & Johan Dekker & Jennifer McDonogh, 2019. "Experiences of Embedding Long-Term Thinking in an Environment of Short-Termism and Sub-par Business Performance: Investing in Intangibles for Sustainable Growth," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 157(4), pages 997-1041, July.
    7. Kayakutlu, Gulgun & Daim, Tugrul & Kunt, Meltem & Altay, Ayca & Suharto, Yulianto, 2017. "Scenarios for regional waste management," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1323-1335.
    8. Silvestro, Rhian, 2014. "Performance topology mapping: understanding the drivers of performance," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 269-282.

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