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Carbon capture and storage investment strategy towards the dual carbon goals

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  • Ouyang, Yiling
  • Guo, Jian

Abstract

This paper develops a real option model combined with the Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the impact of the “dual carbon goals” on the CCS investment timing in China. The trajectory of CO2 prices is predicted to follow a geometric Brownian motion with jump. The CO2 prices are predicted on the basis of three scenarios: high, medium, and low shocks, respectively. Furthermore, the real option method is adopted to derive the appropriate incentive schemes and corresponding target CO2 prices that sustain CCS operations to assist China’s dual carbon goals. Notably, portfolios of two government incentive policies are compared, including clean electricity tariff and carbon tax. The results show that building an efficient national carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) is crucial to catalyzing the deployment of CCS technology, shortening the waiting time of CCS investment to 5.9 years at best. Government incentives could further bring the threshold CO2 prices down and the expected waiting time of CCS investment forward.

Suggested Citation

  • Ouyang, Yiling & Guo, Jian, 2022. "Carbon capture and storage investment strategy towards the dual carbon goals," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:82:y:2022:i:c:s1049007822000835
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2022.101527
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    References listed on IDEAS

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