Can clean heating effectively alleviate air pollution: An empirical study based on the plan for cleaner winter heating in northern China

The current grim situation of China's air contamination has become a grave environmental and social problem. The massive consumption of coal energy has resulted in a large amount of atmospheric pollutant emissions and consequently deteriorated air quality, making the cleaner transformation of coal energy a priority in the fight against air pollution in China. Based on this background, we used panel data with coverage for 286 Chinese cities over the time frame spanning 2013 to 2020 combined with the difference-in-differences (DID) model to investigate the impacts of the Plan for Cleaner Winter Heating in Northern Region (NCH) on air contamination and its action mechanism. The empirical evidence suggests that the implementation of the NCH policy can effectively alleviate air pollution, with a reduction in SO2 concentration of approximately 20.4%, which can be corroborated by robustness tests. Nevertheless, the policy is insufficient to significantly reduce PM2.5 pollution. Furthermore, the potential mechanisms are also examined here, revealing that energy structure optimization is a key path for the NCH policy to decrease SO2 pollution. Moreover, due to the differences in the environmental protection characteristics, geographic location, priority and marketization level, significant heterogeneity of the impacts of NCH on SO2 pollution was observed. Especially in nonlow‑carbon pilot cities, coastal cities, “2 + 26” key cities, and cities with high marketization, the policy was particularly pronounced in attenuating SO2 pollution. These results can serve as a scientific basis for systematically setting up cleaner heating projects and informing decision-making in areas threatened by air pollution.