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The role of residential rooftop photovoltaic in long-term energy and climate scenarios

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  • Gernaat, David E.H.J.
  • de Boer, Harmen-Sytze
  • Dammeier, Louise C.
  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Abstract

The use of solar photovoltaic has strongly increased in the last decade. A significant part of this growth comes from home owners installing rooftop photovoltaic. Despite this key role, most long-term model-based scenarios do not consider decentralized supply of rooftop photovoltaic but concentrate on utility-scale photovoltaic instead. In this paper, we implement rooftop photovoltaic in the Integrated Assessment Model IMAGE to study its possible role in energy and climate scenarios. We first calculated the global technical and economic potential to derive regional cost-supply curves for rooftop photovoltaic. Next, we have added a new decision in the IMAGE model allowing household investment in rooftop photovoltaic based on the comparison of the whole-sale electricity price with the price of rooftop photovoltaic. The global suitable roof surface area was assessed at 36 billion m2, or 4.7 m2 capita−1, leading to a potential for rooftop photovoltaic of 8.3 PWh y−1, roughly 1.5 times the 2015 global residential electricity demand. In the baseline scenario, adding rooftop photovoltaic could lead to a 80–280% increased share of photovoltaic electricity production in 2050 (i.e. from 6% to 17% in total power production). This increase depends on regional characteristics that are essential to the deployment of rooftop photovoltaic: differences in social-economic and policy factors (capital costs, household income, and electricity prices) are considerably more important than physical factors, such as solar irradiance.

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  • Gernaat, David E.H.J. & de Boer, Harmen-Sytze & Dammeier, Louise C. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2020. "The role of residential rooftop photovoltaic in long-term energy and climate scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:279:y:2020:i:c:s0306261920312009
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115705
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    5. Tung Nguyen Thanh & Phap Vu Minh & Kien Duong Trung & Tuan Do Anh, 2021. "Study on Performance of Rooftop Solar Power Generation Combined with Battery Storage at Office Building in Northeast Region, Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-15, October.
    6. Daioglou, Vassilis & Mikropoulos, Efstratios & Gernaat, David & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2022. "Efficiency improvement and technology choice for energy and emission reductions of the residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    7. Barbón, A. & Bayón-Cueli, C. & Bayón, L. & Rodríguez-Suanzes, C., 2022. "Analysis of the tilt and azimuth angles of photovoltaic systems in non-ideal positions for urban applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    8. Keiner, Dominik & Thoma, Christian & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Seasonal hydrogen storage for residential on- and off-grid solar photovoltaics prosumer applications: Revolutionary solution or niche market for the energy transition until 2050?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    9. Aslani, Mohammad & Seipel, Stefan, 2022. "Automatic identification of utilizable rooftop areas in digital surface models for photovoltaics potential assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    10. Cavadini, Giovan Battista & Cook, Lauren M., 2021. "Green and cool roof choices integrated into rooftop solar energy modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
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