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Economics of tourism investment in data scarce countries

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  • Banerjee, Onil
  • Cicowiez, Martin
  • Cotta, Jamie

Abstract

Ex-ante economic impact analyses are required to demonstrate the development impact and viability of multilateral loans. These assessments are often performed under tight timelines, in data scarce environments and with limited opportunity for primary data collection. This paper develops a framework for assessing tourism interventions under these challenging conditions and evaluates a US$15 million tourism investment in Belize. This paper contributes to the literature by: (i) developing a generalizable approach to building economy-wide models in data scarce environments; (ii) generating realistic expectations of agent responses with quasi-contingent valuation and auto-regressive integrated moving average methods. Applying the first economy-wide model for Belize, results show that the investment would stimulate GDP by 3% and reduce unemployment from 12% to 10% by 2040.

Suggested Citation

  • Banerjee, Onil & Cicowiez, Martin & Cotta, Jamie, 2016. "Economics of tourism investment in data scarce countries," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 115-138.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:60:y:2016:i:c:p:115-138
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2016.06.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Banerjee, Onil & Cicowiez, Martin & Gachot, Sebastien, 2015. "A Framework for Ex-Ante Economic Analysis of Tourism Investments: An Application to Haiti," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7238, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. J. Edward Taylor, 2010. "Technical Guidelines for Evaluating the Impacts of Tourism Using Simulation Models," SPD Working Papers 1008, Inter-American Development Bank, Office of Strategic Planning and Development Effectiveness (SPD).
    3. Onil Banerjee & Martin Cicowiez & Sebastien Gachot, 2015. "A Framework for Ex-Ante Economic Analysis of Tourism Investments: An Application to Haiti," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 91317, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Banerjee, Onil & Cicowiez, Martin & Gachot, Sébastien, 2015. "A quantitative framework for assessing public investment in tourism – An application to Haiti," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 157-173.
    5. Ronald W. Jones, 2018. "The Structure of Simple General Equilibrium Models," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Trade Theory and Competitive Models Features, Values, and Criticisms, chapter 4, pages 61-84, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    10. Sean Becketti, 2013. "Introduction to Time Series Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number itsus, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Onil Banerjee & Martin Cicowiez & Thomas Ochuodho & Michel Masozera & Bernabas Wolde & Pankaj Lal & Sebastian Dudek & Janaki R.R. Alavalapati, 2017. "Financing the Sustainable Management of Rwanda’s Protected Areas," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0211, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    2. Cicowiez, Martín & Ordóñez, Romina, 2021. "The economic impacts of tourism-related private investment in Jamaica," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    3. Erick Lahura & Rosario Sabrera, 2023. "The effect of infrastructure investment on tourism demand: a synthetic control approach for the case of Kuelap, Peru," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 443-478, July.
    4. Muhammad Halley Yudhistira & Yusuf Sofiyandi & Witri Indriyani & Andhika Putra Pratama, 2021. "Heterogeneous effects of visa exemption policy on international tourist arrivals: Evidence from Indonesia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 703-720, June.
    5. Onil Banerjee & Martin Henseler & Hélène Maisonnave & Lulit Mitik Beyene & Mercedes Velasco, 2017. "An integrated model for evaluating investments in cultural heritage tourism in the Dominican Republic," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(8), pages 1568-1580, December.
    6. Onil Banerjee & Martin Cicowiez & Adela Moreda, 2017. "Reconciliation Once and For All: Economic Impact Evaluation and Social Cost Benefit Analysis," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0207, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    7. Erick Lahura & Rosario Sabrera, 2020. "Inversión en infraestructura y demanda turística: una aplicacion del enfoque de control sintético para el caso de Kuélap, Perú," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-491, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    8. Onil Banerjee & Martin Cicowiez & Renato Vargas & Mark Horridge, 2019. "Construction of an Extended Environmental and Economic Social Accounting Matrix from a Practitioner’s Perspective," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0253, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    9. Banerjee, Onil & Alavalapati, Janaki R.R. & Lima, Eirivelthon, 2016. "A framework for ex-ante analysis of public investment in forest-based development: An application to the Brazilian Amazon," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 204-214.
    10. Ioannis Kostakis & Eleni Theodoropoulou, 2017. "Spatial analysis of the nexus between tourism–human capital–economic growth," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 1523-1534, November.

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