No more double cropping in Mato Grosso, Brazil? Evaluating the potential impact of climate change on the profitability of farm systems

Farmers in the federal state of Mato Grosso contribute about one-third of national grain production in Brazil. Given their key role in providing food and feed for fast-growing world demand, major shocks on Mato Grosso's farm holdings can lead to devastating consequences for vulnerable consumers and producers inside and outside Brazil. Research has shown that rising temperature and water stress threaten the agricultural productivity of Mato Grosso's rain-fed farm production systems. Failure of current production systems on existing croplands may also foster agricultural expansion and increase pressure on the remaining native forest. Balancing agricultural production and environmental protection is of particular concern in Mato Grosso because more than half of its territory is in the Amazon Rainforest biome. The tight schedule of field activities within double-cropping systems reduces farmers' ability to adapt to climate change and manage shocks. The increasing uncertainty about climate change and price volatility further complicate farmers' decision-making.