IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v153y2017icp212-220.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the harvested area gap in China

Author

Listed:
  • Yu, Qiangyi
  • Wu, Wenbin
  • You, Liangzhi
  • Zhu, Tingju
  • van Vliet, Jasper
  • Verburg, Peter H.
  • Liu, Zhenhuan
  • Li, Zhengguo
  • Yang, Peng
  • Zhou, Qingbo
  • Tang, Huajun

Abstract

Total crop production is a function of the harvested area and the yield. Many studies have investigated opportunities to increase production by closing the yield gap and by expanding cropland area. However, the potential to increase the harvested area by increasing the cropping frequency on existing cropland has remained largely unexplored. Our study suggests that the attainable harvested area gap (HAG) in China ranges from 13.5 to 36.3 million ha, depending on the selected water allocation scenario, relative to the current harvested area of 160.0 million ha. Spatially, South China and the Lower Yangtze region have the largest potential to increase harvested area, as these regions allow triple-cropping, have sufficient water available, and have a good irrigation infrastructure. The results imply that management factors are equally important for exploring the potential against the resource endowment: water allocation has a large impact on both the size and the spatial pattern of the attainable HAG. This indicates the necessity of further examining the spatial-temporal dynamics of HAG at national and regional scales, and its potential contribution to food security and sustainable agricultural development.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Qiangyi & Wu, Wenbin & You, Liangzhi & Zhu, Tingju & van Vliet, Jasper & Verburg, Peter H. & Liu, Zhenhuan & Li, Zhengguo & Yang, Peng & Zhou, Qingbo & Tang, Huajun, 2017. "Assessing the harvested area gap in China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 212-220.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:153:y:2017:i:c:p:212-220
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.02.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X16302542
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.02.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley & Wood-Sichra, Ulrike & Wu, Wenbin, 2014. "Generating global crop distribution maps: From census to grid," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 53-60.
    2. Anonymous, 2013. "Introduction to the Issue," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 129-130, November.
    3. Deepak K. Ray & Navin Ramankutty & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Paul C. West & Jonathan A. Foley, 2012. "Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 1-7, January.
    4. Robinson, Sherman & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Islam, Shahnila & Sulser, Timothy B. & Robertson, Richard D. & Zhu, Tingju & Gueneau, Arthur & Pitois, Gauthier & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2015. "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model description for version 3:," IFPRI discussion papers 1483, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Weifeng Zhang & Guoxin Cao & Xiaolin Li & Hongyan Zhang & Chong Wang & Quanqing Liu & Xinping Chen & Zhenling Cui & Jianbo Shen & Rongfeng Jiang & Guohua Mi & Yuxin Miao & Fusuo Zhang & Zhengxia Dou, 2016. "Closing yield gaps in China by empowering smallholder farmers," Nature, Nature, vol. 537(7622), pages 671-674, September.
    6. Erb, Karl-Heinz & Haberl, Helmut & Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck & Kuemmerle, Tobias & Lindner, Marcus & Müller, Daniel & Verburg, Peter H & Reenberg, Anette, 2013. "A conceptual framework for analysing and measuring land-use intensity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(5), pages 464-470.
    7. Patricio Grassini & Kent M. Eskridge & Kenneth G. Cassman, 2013. "Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Neumann, Kathleen & Verburg, Peter H. & Stehfest, Elke & Müller, Christoph, 2010. "The yield gap of global grain production: A spatial analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(5), pages 316-326, June.
    9. Anonymous, 2013. "Introduction to the Issue," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 243-243, December.
    10. Wolfram Mauser & Gernot Klepper & Florian Zabel & Ruth Delzeit & Tobias Hank & Birgitta Putzenlechner & Alvaro Calzadilla, 2015. "Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Swinkels, R.A. & Franzel, S. & Shepherd, K.D. & Ohlsson, E. & Ndufa, J.K., 1997. "The economics of short rotation improved fallows: evidence from areas of high population density in Western Kenya," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 99-121, September.
    12. Nathaniel D. Mueller & James S. Gerber & Matt Johnston & Deepak K. Ray & Navin Ramankutty & Jonathan A. Foley, 2012. "Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management," Nature, Nature, vol. 490(7419), pages 254-257, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xinhai Lu & Zhoumi Li & Hongzheng Wang & Yifeng Tang & Bixia Hu & Mingyue Gong & Yulong Li, 2022. "Evaluating Impact of Farmland Recessive Morphology Transition on High-Quality Agricultural Development in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Yu, Qiangyi & Xiang, Mingtao & Sun, Zhanli & Wu, Wenbin, 2021. "The complexity of measuring cropland use intensity: An empirical study," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    3. Tao Jin & Taiyang Zhong, 2022. "Changing rice cropping patterns and their impact on food security in southern China," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(4), pages 907-917, August.
    4. Wu, Wenbin & Yu, Qiangyi & You, Liangzhi & Chen, Kevin & Tang, Huajun & Liu, Jianguo, 2018. "Global cropping intensity gaps: Increasing food production without cropland expansion," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 515-525.
    5. Shen, Ge & Yu, Qiangyi & Zhou, Qingbo & Wang, Cong & Wu, Wenbin, 2023. "From multiple cropping frequency to multiple cropping system: A new perspective for the characterization of cropland use intensity," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    6. Lan, Kang & Chen, Xin & Ridoutt, Bradley G. & Huang, Jing & Scherer, Laura, 2021. "Closing yield and harvest area gaps to mitigate water scarcity related to China’s rice production," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    7. Xiang, Mingtao & Yu, Qiangyi & Li, Yan & Shi, Zhou & Wu, Wenbin, 2022. "Increasing multiple cropping for land use intensification: The role of crop choice," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    8. Qie, Lu & Pu, Lijie & Tang, Pengfei & Liu, Rongjuan & Huang, Sihua & Xu, Fei & Zhong, Taiyang, 2023. "Gains and losses of farmland associated with farmland protection policy and urbanization in China: An integrated perspective based on goal orientation," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    9. Ramshani, Mohammad & Li, Xueping & Khojandi, Anahita & Omitaomu, Olufemi, 2020. "An agent-based approach to study the diffusion rate and the effect of policies on joint placement of photovoltaic panels and green roof under climate change uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    10. Tingting Li & Yanfei Wang & Changquan Liu & Shuangshuang Tu, 2021. "Research on Identification of Multiple Cropping Index of Farmland and Regional Optimization Scheme in China Based on NDVI Data," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, August.
    11. Zhongen Niu & Huimin Yan & Fang Liu, 2020. "Decreasing Cropping Intensity Dominated the Negative Trend of Cropland Productivity in Southern China in 2000–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, December.
    12. Sun, Zhanli & You, Liangzhi & Müller, Daniel, 2018. "Synthesis of agricultural land system change in China over the past 40 years," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 13(5), pages 473-479.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Bangbang & Li, Xian & Chen, Haibin & Niu, Wenhao & Kong, Xiangbin & Yu, Qiang & Zhao, Minjuan & Xia, Xianli, 2022. "Identifying opportunities to close yield gaps in China by use of certificated cultivars to estimate potential productivity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Gao, Yukun & Zhao, Hongfang & Zhao, Chuang & Hu, Guohua & Zhang, Han & Liu, Xue & Li, Nan & Hou, Haiyan & Li, Xia, 2022. "Spatial and temporal variations of maize and wheat yield gaps and their relationships with climate in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    3. Cailong Xu & Ruidong Li & Wenwen Song & Tingting Wu & Shi Sun & Shuixiu Hu & Tianfu Han & Cunxiang Wu, 2021. "Responses of Branch Number and Yield Component of Soybean Cultivars Tested in Different Planting Densities," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, January.
    4. P. A. Turner & C. B. Field & D. B. Lobell & D. L. Sanchez & K. J. Mach, 2018. "Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modelled climate change mitigation pathways," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(5), pages 240-245, May.
    5. Hampf, Anna C. & Carauta, Marcelo & Latynskiy, Evgeny & Libera, Affonso A.D. & Monteiro, Leonardo & Sentelhas, Paulo & Troost, Christian & Berger, Thomas & Nendel, Claas, 2018. "The biophysical and socio-economic dimension of yield gaps in the southern Amazon – A bio-economic modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-13.
    6. Syed Abu Shoaib & Mohammad Zaved Kaiser Khan & Nahid Sultana & Taufique H. Mahmood, 2021. "Quantifying Uncertainty in Food Security Modeling," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, January.
    7. Larson,Donald F. & Muraoka,Rie & Otsuka,Keijiro, 2016. "On the central role of small farms in African rural development strategies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7710, The World Bank.
    8. Schierhorn, Florian & Müller, Daniel & Prishchepov, Alexander V. & Faramarzi, Monireh & Balmann, Alfons, 2014. "The potential of Russia to increase its wheat production through cropland expansion and intensification," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 3(3-4), pages 133-141.
    9. Yu, Qiangyi & Xiang, Mingtao & Sun, Zhanli & Wu, Wenbin, 2021. "The complexity of measuring cropland use intensity: An empirical study," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 192.
    10. Wu, Wenbin & You, Liangzhi & Chen, Kevin Z., 2015. "Cropping intensity gaps: The potential for expanded global harvest areas:," IFPRI discussion papers 1459, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Zhang, He & Tao, Fulu & Zhou, Guangsheng, 2019. "Potential yields, yield gaps, and optimal agronomic management practices for rice production systems in different regions of China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 100-112.
    12. Yahui Guo & Wenxiang Wu & Christopher Robin Bryant, 2019. "Quantifying Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Rice Yield Gaps in Double-Cropping Systems: A Case Study in Pearl River Delta, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-22, March.
    13. Wang, Hongzhang & Ren, Hao & Zhang, Lihua & Zhao, Yali & Liu, Yuee & He, Qijin & Li, Geng & Han, Kun & Zhang, Jiwang & Zhao, Bin & Ren, Baizhao & Liu, Peng, 2023. "A sustainable approach to narrowing the summer maize yield gap experienced by smallholders in the North China Plain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    14. Zhiqi Sun & Ruifa Hu & Yu Hong, 2022. "Does yield gap still matter? Evidence from rice production in China," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(3), pages 829-840, June.
    15. Turner, Graham M. & Dunlop, Michael & Candy, Seona, 2016. "The impacts of expansion and degradation on Australian cropping yields—An integrated historical perspective," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 22-37.
    16. Ranjana Raghunathan, 2022. "Everyday Intimacies and Inter-Ethnic Relationships: Tracing Entanglements of Gender and Race in Multicultural Singapore," Sociological Research Online, , vol. 27(1), pages 77-94, March.
    17. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    18. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    19. Cao, Juan & Zhang, Zhao & Tao, Fulu & Chen, Yi & Luo, Xiangzhong & Xie, Jun, 2023. "Forecasting global crop yields based on El Nino Southern Oscillation early signals," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    20. Songsore, Emmanuel & Buzzelli, Michael, 2014. "Social responses to wind energy development in Ontario: The influence of health risk perceptions and associated concerns," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 285-296.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:153:y:2017:i:c:p:212-220. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.