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Modelling embedded risk in peasant agriculture: methodological insights from northern Malawi

  • Dorward, Andrew

Using a linear-programming model of farming systems in northern Malawi, the conditions under which peasant farmhousehold models may need to allow for embedded risk are investigated. Tactical, sequential responses to uncertainty are found to be more important to labour-scarce households with limited access to capital and to credit markets. Compared with semi-sequential programming, discrete stochastic programming (DSP) provided more efficient solutions for problems involving embedded risk. There may be intuitive advantages in presenting results from DSP models in terms of a semisequential strategy. © 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Article provided by Blackwell in its journal Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 21 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 191-203

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Handle: RePEc:eee:agecon:v:21:y:1999:i:2:p:191-203
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/loi/agec

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  1. Hardaker, J. Brian & Pandey, Sushil & Patten, Louise H., 1991. "Farm Planning under Uncertainty: A Review of Alternative Programming Models," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(01), April.
  2. Torkamani, Javad & Hardaker, J. Brian, 1996. "A study of economic efficiency of Iranian farmers in Ramjerd district: an application of stochastic programming," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 14(2), July.
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  4. Dorward, Andrew, 1994. "Farm Planning with Resource Uncertainty: A Semi-sequential Approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 21(2), pages 309-24.
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  6. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Kristjanson, Patricia M. & Matlon, Peter, 1991. "On the role of information in decision making : The case of sorghum yield in Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 261-280, April.
  7. Haddad, Lawrence, 1994. "Strengthening food policy through intrahousehold analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 347-356, August.
  8. Corbett, Jane, 1988. "Famine and household coping strategies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 1099-1112, September.
  9. Kingwell, Ross S. & Pannell, David J. & Robinson, Stephen D., 1993. "Tactical responses to seasonal conditions in whole-farm planning in Western Australia," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 211-226, March.
  10. Dorward, A. R., 1996. "Modelling diversity, change and uncertainty in peasant agriculture in northern Malawi," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 469-486, August.
  11. Shapiro, B. I. & Sanders, J. H. & Reddy, K. C. & Baker, T. G., 1993. "Evaluating and adapting new technologies in a high-risk agricultural system--Niger," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 153-171.
  12. Kingwell, R. S. & Morrison, D. A. & Bathgate, A. D., 1992. "The effect of climatic risk on dryland farm management," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 153-175.
  13. K. D. Cocks, 1968. "Discrete Stochastic Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 72-79, September.
  14. A. Dorward, 1991. "Integrated Decision Rules As Farm Management Tools In Smallholder Agriculture In Malawi," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 146-159.
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