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Market Changes, Business Cycles and Fluctuations in Electricity Prices - EU Evidence from Germany and Slovenia


  • HFrance Krizanic

    (EIPF d.o.o. – Economic institute -Prešernova, Ljubljana, Slovenia)

  • Zan Jan Oplotnik

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Maribor, Slovenia)


This article deals with interesting oscillation pattern in electricity prices during the period of EU electric power supply liberalization process, its transition from infrastructure to market activity and during last economic crisis, when at first prices declined significantly, to be raised afterward and start to decline again during the last recession. Using empirical evidence from Germany and Slovenia and based on short theoretical background we try to explain how can such strong oscillations occur and what we can expect in the future? It was discovered that such oscillations can be connected with business cycles dynamic, only that electricity prices oscillations proved to be even stronger unless a major technological breakthrough occurs in the way energy is produced or spent. Economic growth affects electricity prices even in relative terms, causes growth in prices with respect to inflation and vice versa. To conclude, we can expect relative growth of electric power prices together with economic recovery in the near future, but growth should be moderately slower than growth of real GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • HFrance Krizanic & Zan Jan Oplotnik, 2013. "Market Changes, Business Cycles and Fluctuations in Electricity Prices - EU Evidence from Germany and Slovenia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(2), pages 118-126.
  • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2013-02-1

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. Mustafa SAATCÝ & Yasemin DUMRUL, 2013. "The Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence From A Structural Break Analysis For Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 20-29.
    3. Hellström, Jörgen & Lundgren, Jens & Yu, Haishan, 2012. "Why do electricity prices jump? Empirical evidence from the Nordic electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1774-1781.
    4. Park, Haesun & Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 81-101, January.
    5. Bask, Mikael & Widerberg, Anna, 2009. "Market structure and the stability and volatility of electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 278-288, March.
    6. Zachmann, Georg, 2008. "Electricity wholesale market prices in Europe: Convergence?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1659-1671, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eco:journ2:2017-02-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Eric L. Prentis, 2014. "U.S. Electrical System Reliability: Deregulated Retail Choice States’ Evidence and Market Modeling," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 588-598.
    3. repec:eco:journ2:2017-05-13 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Prices oscillation; Business Cycles; EU; Economic development; Supply-Demand; Forecasting and simulations; Electricity;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets


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