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Why do electricity prices jump? Empirical evidence from the Nordic electricity market

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  • Hellström, Jörgen
  • Lundgren, Jens
  • Yu, Haishan

Abstract

The paper empirically explores the possible causes behind electricity price jumps in the Nordic electricity market, Nord Pool. A time-series model (a mixed GARCH–EARJI jump model) capturing the common statistical features of electricity prices is used to identify price jumps. By the model, a categorical variable is defined distinguishing no, positive and negative jumps. The causes for the jumps are then explored through the use of ordered probit models in a second stage. The empirical results indicate that the structure of the market plays an important role in whether shocks in the demand and supply for electricity translate into price jumps.

Suggested Citation

  • Hellström, Jörgen & Lundgren, Jens & Yu, Haishan, 2012. "Why do electricity prices jump? Empirical evidence from the Nordic electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1774-1781.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:6:p:1774-1781
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.07.006
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    11. Liu, Yuna, 2016. "Essays on Stock Market Integration - On Stock Market Efficiency, Price Jumps and Stock Market Correlations," Umeå Economic Studies 926, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
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    14. Kam Fong Chan & Philip Gray, 2017. "Do Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements Influence Energy Price Jumps?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 71-89, January.
    15. Tommaso Proietti & Niels Haldrup & Oskar Knapik, 2017. "Spikes and memory in (Nord Pool) electricity price spot prices," CEIS Research Paper 422, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Dec 2017.
    16. Do, Hung Xuan & Nepal, Rabindra & Pham, Son Duy & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2023. "Electricity Market Crisis in Europe and Cross Border Price Effects: A Quantile Return Connectedness Analysis," Working Papers 8-2023, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    17. HFrance Krizanic & Zan Jan Oplotnik, 2013. "Market Changes, Business Cycles and Fluctuations in Electricity Prices - EU Evidence from Germany and Slovenia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(2), pages 118-126.
    18. Liu, Yuna, 2016. "Stock exchange integration and price jump risks - The case of the OMX Nordic exchange mergers," Umeå Economic Studies 925, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    19. Bigerna, Simona & Bollino, Carlo Andrea & Ciferri, Davide & Polinori, Paolo, 2017. "Renewables diffusion and contagion effect in Italian regional electricity markets: Assessment and policy implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 199-211.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity price; Price jumps;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • L69 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Other
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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