IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-17-00037.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A synthetic control approach on Chile's transition to democracy

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel A. P. Uhr

    (Applied Economics Post-Graduation Program. Federal University of Pelotas, Brazil.)

  • Julia G. Z. Uhr

    (Applied Economics Post-Graduation Program. Federal University of Pelotas)

  • Regis A. Ely

    (Applied Economics Post-Graduation Program. Federal University of Pelotas)

Abstract

We use a synthetic control approach for performing a case study of the impact of Economic Reforms and Democracy Openness on Chile's GDP per capita. We use data available at the World Bank Open Data from 1976 to 2014 for different countries in order to build a synthetic “authoritarian Chile†and compare it with the “real Chile†. We find a significant positive effect of the process of re-democratization on Chile's long-term GDP per capita. The results are robust to placebo tests and time series methods such as endogenous structural break tests and an analysis of causal impact based on the forecasts of a Bayesian Structural Time Series model.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel A. P. Uhr & Julia G. Z. Uhr & Regis A. Ely, 2017. "A synthetic control approach on Chile's transition to democracy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 2219-2233.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00037
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2017/Volume37/EB-17-V37-I3-P199.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 983-1001, July.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    3. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    4. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    5. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    6. William Keech, 2004. "Democracy, Dictatorship and Economic Performance in Chile," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 332, Econometric Society.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wisarut Suwanprasert, 2024. "The economic aftermath of Thailand's 2014 military coup: Evidence from the synthetic control method," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 256-283, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
    2. Nauro Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli & Luigi Moretti, 2015. "Norwegian Rhapsody? The Political Economy Benefits of Regional Integration," Working Papers halshs-01267252, HAL.
    3. Bibek Adhikari & James Alm, 2016. "Evaluating the Economic Effects of Flat Tax Reforms Using Synthetic Control Methods," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(2), pages 437-463, October.
    4. Castillo, Victoria & Figal Garone, Lucas & Maffioli, Alessandro & Salazar, Lina, 2017. "The causal effects of regional industrial policies on employment: A synthetic control approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 25-41.
    5. Samer Matta & Simon Appleton & Michael Bleaney, 2019. "The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 33(1), pages 231-258.
    6. Rodríguez-Puello, Gabriel, 2024. "Digging for Trouble? Uncovering the Link Between Mining Booms and Crime," OSF Preprints s8ayp, Center for Open Science.
    7. Noémi Kreif & Richard Grieve & Dominik Hangartner & Alex James Turner & Silviya Nikolova & Matt Sutton, 2016. "Examination of the Synthetic Control Method for Evaluating Health Policies with Multiple Treated Units," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(12), pages 1514-1528, December.
    8. Bidisha Lahiri & Anurag Deb, 2022. "Impact of the Indian “demonetization” policy on its export performance," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2799-2825, June.
    9. Bibek Adhikari & James Alm, 2016. "Evaluating the Economic Effects of Flat Tax Reforms Using Synthetic Control Methods," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(2), pages 437-463, October.
    10. Samuel Verevis & Murat Üngör, 2021. "What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 20-50, February.
    11. Chuku Chuku & Mustafa Yasin Yenice, 2021. "Working Paper 356 - Eurobonds, debt sustainability and macroeconomic performance in Africa: Synthetic controlled experiments," Working Paper Series 2482, African Development Bank.
    12. Bibek Adhikari & Romain Duval & Bingjie Hu & Prakash Loungani, 2018. "Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies using the Synthetic Control Method," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 879-910, September.
    13. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    14. Alice Lépissier & Matto Mildenberger, 2021. "Unilateral climate policies can substantially reduce national carbon pollution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-21, June.
    15. Andrzej Cieślik & Mehmet Burak Turgut, 2021. "Estimating the Growth Effects of 2004 Eastern Enlargement of the European Union," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-15, March.
    16. repec:lic:licosd:38717 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Olper, Alessandro & Curzi, Daniele & Swinnen, Johan, 2018. "Trade liberalization and child mortality: A Synthetic Control Method," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 394-410.
    18. Qian Tang & Andrew B. Whinston, 2020. "Do Reputational Sanctions Deter Negligence in Information Security Management? A Field Quasi‐Experiment," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(2), pages 410-427, February.
    19. Chiara Natalie Focacci & Mitja Kovac & Rok Spruk, 2022. "The perils of Kremlin's influence: evidence from Ukraine," Papers 2206.04950, arXiv.org.
    20. Raffaele Conti & Giovanni Valentini, 2018. "Super Partes? Assessing the Effect of Judicial Independence on Entry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(8), pages 3517-3535, August.
    21. Barati Mehdi, 2019. "Punishment Severity and Crime: The Case of Arkansas," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Re-democratization; Economic Growth; Chile; Synthetic Control.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00037. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.