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The impact of trade openness on the incomes of four South East Asian countries before and after the Asian financial crisis

  • Vatthanamixay Chansomphou

    ()

    (Graduate School for Internatinal Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University)

  • Masaru Ichihashi

    ()

    (Graduate School for Internatinal Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University)

The purpose of this study is to present a robust estimation of trade openness in four South East Asian countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand—before and after the Asian financial crisis, using time series analysis. We use the co-integration technique with a structural break developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre and Sanso (2006) to estimate the elasticity of trade openness that affects GDP per capita in the long run. The results show that the trade openness of Thailand performs better than that of the other three sampled countries both before and after the crisis. For Indonesia and Malaysia, trade openness also has a significant positive influence on income per capita, but this impact is relatively smaller than that of Thailand. The trade openness of the Philippines seems to perform better than that of Malaysia before the crisis, but after the crisis, trade openness lowers income per capita. Therefore, we think that Thailand might be a good example of how to make trade work for other developing countries.

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File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2011/Volume31/EB-11-V31-I4-P261.pdf
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Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 31 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 2890-2902

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00652
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  1. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
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  6. Santos-Paulino, Amelia U., 2002. "The Effects of Trade Liberalization on Imports in Selected Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 959-974, June.
  7. Sebastian Edwards, 1997. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," NBER Working Papers 5978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2005. "Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks," DEA Working Papers 10, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
  9. Edwards, Sebastian, 1992. "Trade orientation, distortions and growth in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 31-57, July.
  10. Slaughter, Matthew J., 2001. "Trade liberalization and per capita income convergence: a difference-in-differences analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 203-228, October.
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