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Identification of Driving Factors for Emerging Markets Sovereign Spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Edward W. Sun

    (BEM Management School Bordeaux, France)

  • Daniel Tenengauzer

    (Bank of America Merrill Lynch New York, USA)

  • Ali Bastani

    (Bank of America Merrill Lynch New York, USA)

  • Omid Rezania

    (California Public Employees Retirement System Sacramento, USA)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to identify the relationship between sovereign yield spreads and macroeconomic variables in emerging markets. We find that the correlation between spreads and GDP is negative. Real effective exchange rate depreciation enlarges spreads and increasing in risk aversion influences spreads. US treasury yields impact on spreads is changing over time. More recently lower US treasuries yields have driven spreads wider. Last commodity prices are associated with a reduction in emerging market debt spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward W. Sun & Daniel Tenengauzer & Ali Bastani & Omid Rezania, 2011. "Identification of Driving Factors for Emerging Markets Sovereign Spreads," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2584-2592.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00543
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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2011/Volume31/EB-11-V31-I3-P232.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paolo Mauro & Nathan Sussman & Yishay Yafeh, 2002. "Emerging Market Spreads: Then versus Now," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 695-733.
    2. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Fan Yu, 2008. "Default Risk And Diversification: Theory And Empirical Implications," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 19, pages 455-480, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    4. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2006. "The Role of Global Risk Aversion in Explaining Sovereign Spreads," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2006), pages 125-155, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bouri, Elie & Kachacha, Imad & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Oil market conditions and sovereign risk in MENA oil exporters and importers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Sawsen Bouker & Faysal Mansouri, 2022. "Sovereign contagion risk measure across financial markets in the eurozone: a bivariate copulas and Markov Regime Switching ARMA based approaches," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(2), pages 615-711, May.
    3. Bouri, Elie & Jalkh, Naji & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Commodity volatility shocks and BRIC sovereign risk: A GARCH-quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 385-392.
    4. Bouri, Elie & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Pavlova, Ivelina, 2017. "Volatility transmission from commodity markets to sovereign CDS spreads in emerging and frontier countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 155-165.
    5. Zhang, Zhengyong & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Tail risk transmission from commodity prices to sovereign risk of emerging economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bond spread; Cointegration; Emerging market CDS; Sovereign bond;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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